NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	97		Excitement	4.9 [828]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +20.9%
Washington Wizards	105		Comeback	1.1 [818]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -16.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Kaman	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.01	8	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
CJ McCollum	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.03	0.05	19	55%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	67%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	0.12	-0.03	0.08	9	71%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	53%	0.00	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	12	46%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	18	37%	-0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.07	0.03	13	72%	0.21	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.03	0.03	10	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.02	9	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.05	-0.02	13	40%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Wall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	23	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.7	28.6	15.8	26.5	2.4	32.2	129.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +46.4%

POR -3.4%

POR -3.1%

WAS +7.0%

WAS +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	WAS	NBA	POR	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	14.9	15.1	105.4	111.7	104.2
season	15.3	15.1		106.5	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.0		101.7	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	18.0	16.2	15.5	14.4	16.0
WAS	12.8	13.8	17.2	16.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	35	36	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.18	9	-17	26	15.3	16.5	-1.27	15.9	14.4	1.50
Meyers Leonard	28	28	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.30	12	-20	32	15.6	16.2	-0.63	16.3	14.4	1.92
Dorell Wright	17	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-6	4	17.3	15.8	1.53	13.2	15.3	-2.11
Chris Kaman	25	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-2	-4	16.9	15.7	1.15	14.2	15.2	-1.03
Steve Blake	23	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.18	-15	7	-22	17.1	15.7	1.45	13.0	15.6	-2.66
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-6	4	16.2	15.5	0.69	15.1	14.4	0.62
Arron Afflalo	52	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-2	-4	16.2	15.8	0.43	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Damian Lillard	74	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-3	-2	15.9	16.4	-0.50	15.3	13.6	1.70
Nicolas Batum	75	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.31	-6	-2	-4	15.8	17.3	-1.53	15.3	13.2	2.11
Robin Lopez	59	60	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.00	-19	11	-30	15.7	16.6	-0.92	14.5	15.8	-1.30

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	78	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.11	19	-11	30	14.6	16.7	-2.19	16.0	16.2	-0.19
Marcin Gortat	73	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	5	-2	15.2	14.0	1.27	16.2	15.5	0.63
John Wall	81	78	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	6	-4	15.3	12.8	2.51	16.0	16.5	-0.54
Nene	62	59	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.25	3	5	-2	15.1	14.6	0.47	15.7	16.6	-0.88
Paul Pierce	63	61	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	5	-2	15.1	14.6	0.43	16.0	16.2	-0.23
Ramon Sessions	30	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	2	4	14.6	15.1	-0.54	16.4	15.9	0.53
Kevin Seraphin	12	13	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	2	4	12.2	15.3	-3.08	16.1	16.0	0.04
Drew Gooden	41	39	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	5	-2	15.0	14.9	0.07	16.4	15.8	0.68
Rasual Butler	30	31	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	13	-18	15.0	14.9	0.14	15.9	16.1	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.85,0.9,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.89,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 99, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.8%
CHI 107, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.96,0.91,1	93.8%
DEN 77, MIN 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	93.8%