NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	118		Excitement	12.9 [10]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +41.8%
New Orleans Pelicans	111		Comeback	10.4 [76]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (DEN): -15.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42	0.16	0.28	0.02	16	74%	0.45	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.38	-0.00	0.39	0.00	17	50%	0.42	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.2,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.10	-0.00	16	56%	0.26	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Erick Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.04	0.00	7	36%	0.00	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.04
Danilo Gallinari	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0	0.04	-0.04	0.00	15	52%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.02	18	53%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	10	30%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.23	0.02	28	58%	0.43	2	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Withey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.05	0.02	18	42%	0.07	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	1	100%	0.10	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	48%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	20	57%	0.24	6	-0.28	4	50%	-0.02
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	8	25%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	26.3	15.5	28.4	2.6	34.0	1.5	15.2	1.6	18.2	170.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +18.0%

DEN +3.6%

NOP -21.7%

DEN +47.2%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	14.9	16.0	15.1	103.5	100.0	104.2
season	14.6	15.8		103.4	106.3
opponent	15.2	15.3		106.1	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	13.5	13.3	15.0	15.4	18.2	14.9
NOP	14.7	18.9	14.4	15.9	17.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	74	70	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.25	20	-13	33	15.4	14.0	1.41	16.2	15.8	0.41
Will Barton	94	89	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-6	19	15.0	14.5	0.50	15.9	16.5	-0.52
Danilo Gallinari	72	70	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.38	6	1	5	15.0	14.7	0.31	16.5	15.3	1.22
Ty Lawson	94	91	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.33	-1	8	-9	15.0	14.7	0.26	15.8	17.2	-1.48
Kenneth Faried	84	84	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.24	-3	10	-13	15.1	14.4	0.74	15.2	18.6	-3.38
Joffrey Lauvergne	13	12	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	3	1	14.2	15.0	-0.77	20.2	15.5	4.72
Erick Green	16	16	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	3	1	14.9	14.9	0.03	17.2	15.8	1.42
JJ Hickson	41	40	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	3	1	14.5	15.2	-0.70	14.6	16.9	-2.28
Gary Harris	32	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	16	-25	13.9	15.3	-1.36	16.4	15.9	0.55
Jusuf Nurkic	42	42	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	10	-13	14.1	15.4	-1.33	16.1	16.0	0.13

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Pondexter	37	37	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.13	7	-14	21	15.9	16.1	-0.22	13.8	15.5	-1.67
Alexis Ajinca	23	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-6	5	14.7	16.4	-1.75	15.2	14.8	0.42
Jeff Withey	15	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-3	-1	17.3	15.8	1.42	14.3	15.0	-0.67
Elliot Williams	25	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	-2	-3	17.2	15.7	1.55	14.9	14.9	0.01
Luke Babbitt	13	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.17	1	-8	9	17.8	15.8	2.05	13.8	15.1	-1.28
Omer Asik	50	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-8	9	16.5	15.7	0.81	13.6	15.9	-2.39
Tyreke Evans	83	84	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-8	9	15.9	16.3	-0.38	14.9	15.0	-0.12
Norris Cole	55	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	1	-9	16.2	15.9	0.25	16.2	13.5	2.75
Anthony Davis	96	98	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-1	-5	15.7	18.0	-2.27	14.9	14.8	0.12
Dante Cunningham	76	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	9	-25	16.2	15.7	0.47	15.6	13.3	2.31
Eric Gordon	82	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	-2	-3	15.6	17.3	-1.77	14.8	15.2	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.33,0.39,0.21,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.77,0.83,0.46,0.55,0.28,0.33,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 112, SAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.47,0.39,0.15,0.07,0.16,0.42,0.46,0.75,0.84,0.95,0.73,0.54,0.39,0.21,0.06,0.02,0	87.2%
TOR 111, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.32,0.36,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.85,0.73,1	85.8%
LAC 120, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.54,0.69,0.46,0.57,0.83,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.23,0.42,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.16,0.01,0	85.7%