NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	95		Excitement	6.6 [479]		MVP	Nene (WAS): +19.8%
Washington Wizards	99		Comeback	1.4 [702]		LVP	Greg Monroe (DET): -12.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Dinwiddie	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.17	0.06	0.11	-0.00	14	65%	0.30	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	89%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	10	30%	-0.15
Reggie Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	12	37%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	7	53%	-0.00	2	-0.11	1	0%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	15	58%	0.11	6	-0.23	6	83%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	-0.01	14	62%	0.20	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	12	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
John Wall	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	14	63%	0.15	5	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.09	0.06	-0.03	10	33%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.12	-0.01	12	54%	-0.09	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.6	29.3	15.8	26.4	0.2	36.1	132.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -16.4%

WAS +21.8%

WAS +7.6%

WAS +37.2%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	15.1	102.2	106.5	104.2
season	15.7	15.1		104.0	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.3		101.7	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	18.3	14.9	14.2	15.6
WAS	14.2	12.4	17.1	17.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	51	53	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.10	14	-18	32	14.5	17.1	-2.60	15.6	15.0	0.57
Jodie Meeks	46	47	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-10	16	15.5	15.8	-0.37	16.0	14.6	1.37
Shawne Williams	10	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	1	-6	19.3	15.2	4.10	10.6	15.9	-5.29
Caron Butler	48	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.34	6	-10	16	14.9	16.4	-1.51	15.8	14.9	0.95
Spencer Dinwiddie	48	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.35	5	-9	14	14.9	16.4	-1.51	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Reggie Jackson	45	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	5	-14	16.4	14.9	1.51	15.4	15.3	0.12
Greg Monroe	64	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-4	4	15.7	15.6	0.14	15.8	14.3	1.48
Tayshaun Prince	45	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	6	-16	16.4	14.9	1.51	14.9	15.8	-0.95
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	47	46	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.25	-10	6	-16	15.8	15.5	0.37	14.6	16.0	-1.37
Andre Drummond	61	58	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.36	-17	13	-30	16.0	15.0	0.98	15.4	15.2	0.24

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	73	73	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-11	26	15.2	15.6	-0.35	15.3	16.7	-1.41
Marcin Gortat	74	74	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-11	26	15.5	14.5	1.07	15.6	15.9	-0.38
Nene	55	54	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.52	5	-1	6	15.9	14.5	1.39	15.9	15.2	0.71
Paul Pierce	63	64	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	-2	8	16.3	13.3	2.99	16.2	14.3	1.89
Bradley Beal	63	65	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.30	1	3	-2	15.4	15.1	0.38	16.0	14.7	1.28
Garrett Temple	31	29	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	1	2	14.6	15.7	-1.02	14.2	16.3	-2.04
Otto Porter	30	29	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.12	-2	6	-8	13.3	16.3	-2.99	14.3	16.2	-1.89
Kevin Seraphin	15	15	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.03	-7	11	-18	14.9	15.4	-0.54	16.3	15.5	0.74
Ramon Sessions	20	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	15	-26	15.6	15.2	0.35	16.7	15.3	1.41
Drew Gooden	41	42	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.07	-5	9	-14	14.7	15.8	-1.19	15.5	15.7	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.72,0.89,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 95, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.6,0.39,0.69,0.79,0.89,0.91,1	93.1%
ATL 93, CLE 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.66,0.85,0.7,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.84,0.99,1,1	92.3%
PHX 93, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.72,0.9,0.98,1	92.3%