NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	8.6 [169]		MVP	Alexis Ajinca (NOP): +61.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	104		Comeback	6.1 [167]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -46.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.16	0.11	0.02	11	73%	0.25	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	13	62%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry Walker	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	13	57%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	13	71%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.00	5	60%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.47	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24,-0.25,-0.29,-0.18,-0.29,-0.47	-0.17	-0.32	-0.03	16	31%	-0.32	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.02

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.42,0.61	0.61	0.20	0.41	0.00	10	86%	0.64	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.03
Eric Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.09	0.20	0.01	15	62%	0.30	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.04
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Tyreke Evans	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	15	63%	0.24	5	-0.25	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.07	0.00	4	62%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.09	0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.18	-0.10	0.00	10	12%	-0.21	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	3.5	28.3	16.4	26.6	3.3	42.0	143.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +48.1%

NOP +11.1%

MIA -2.2%

MIA -9.4%

NOP +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOP	NBA	MIA	NOP	NBA
this game	16.4	15.6	15.1	112.1	116.9	104.2
season	16.0	15.8		102.4	106.3
opponent	15.2	15.3		106.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	15.9	16.5	18.3	16.4
NOP	15.2	17.6	17.0	13.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	26	25	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.06	4	-6	10	17.5	15.9	1.65	18.1	14.7	3.41
Chris Andersen	27	26	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-1	0	17.9	15.7	2.17	16.8	15.1	1.72
Goran Dragic	66	67	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.38	9	-11	20	16.0	17.4	-1.38	15.5	16.0	-0.49
Michael Beasley	21	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	2	-6	18.1	15.8	2.25	12.8	16.4	-3.58
Shabazz Napier	16	15	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	7	-16	17.8	16.1	1.76	16.9	15.4	1.57
Mario Chalmers	51	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	3	-8	16.0	16.8	-0.82	14.1	17.4	-3.27
Luol Deng	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-4	6	15.8	18.1	-2.25	16.4	12.8	3.58
Henry Walker	62	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	0	-2	15.6	17.9	-2.30	14.8	17.4	-2.65
Hassan Whiteside	64	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-1	0	15.7	17.9	-2.17	15.1	16.8	-1.72
Dwyane Wade	52	52	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.50	-3	1	-4	17.0	15.5	1.58	16.6	14.2	2.37

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	43	44	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.60	-2	4	-6	14.3	16.8	-2.48	16.5	16.2	0.31
Dante Cunningham	71	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	-5	12	15.8	14.8	1.07	16.4	16.4	-0.05
Eric Gordon	68	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.54	-5	7	-12	15.5	16.0	-0.42	16.2	16.8	-0.52
Quincy Pondexter	62	63	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	6	-10	16.0	14.8	1.22	16.0	17.2	-1.18
Alexis Ajinca	40	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	-2	6	15.0	16.2	-1.19	16.9	15.9	0.94
Omer Asik	49	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	4	-6	16.2	15.0	1.19	15.9	16.9	-0.94
Tyreke Evans	60	61	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.12	11	-9	20	16.6	13.6	3.08	16.8	15.4	1.44
Jimmer Fredette	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	-1	4	14.9	15.7	-0.82	15.5	16.5	-0.93
Luke Babbitt	41	44	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	4	-6	14.9	16.2	-1.30	16.5	16.3	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 89, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	92.5%
LAL 125, NOP 128	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.1,0.22,0.38,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.15,0.55,0.58,1	92.0%
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	92.0%