NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	6.3 [565]		MVP	Caron Butler (DET): +14.8%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	3.5 [171]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -22.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	87%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.16	-0.04	0.06	18	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	9	100%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	13	56%	0.05	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04
Pau Gasol	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23	-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	9	36%	-0.03	6	-0.20	4	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.04	0.05	10	77%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	8	43%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	14	61%	0.15	3	-0.10	5	40%	-0.04
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	18	37%	-0.06	2	-0.05	13	31%	-0.08
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	1.7	29.2	17.7	22.2	1.5	41.5	134.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.7%

CHI -9.7%

DET +0.5%

DET +24.4%

DET +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	15.3	14.8	15.1	95.8	103.1	104.2
season	15.5	15.7		105.4	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.2		105.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.8	16.3	18.1	12.7	15.3
DET	16.5	15.7	15.4	12.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Brooks	30	31	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.09	10	-19	29	17.6	14.2	3.43	14.0	15.1	-1.15
Nikola Mirotic	16	16	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.05	7	-16	23	18.1	14.7	3.38	15.6	14.6	0.97
Taj Gibson	58	60	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.15	9	-18	27	15.6	14.6	0.99	14.8	14.6	0.17
Tony Snell	31	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-10	11	14.7	15.5	-0.81	12.7	15.9	-3.15
Kirk Hinrich	33	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-8	7	15.7	15.0	0.73	14.5	14.9	-0.42
Mike Dunleavy	37	36	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.01	-14	5	-19	15.4	15.2	0.16	15.9	14.0	1.90
Pau Gasol	63	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	0	-9	14.4	16.8	-2.40	14.9	14.5	0.41
Jimmy Butler	78	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	2	-13	14.9	17.0	-2.13	15.0	13.6	1.47
Derrick Rose	64	64	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	10	-29	14.0	17.8	-3.79	15.0	14.2	0.77
Joakim Noah	65	66	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.14	-18	9	-27	15.6	14.6	0.95	14.7	14.9	-0.17

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	73	72	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.24	18	-9	27	15.1	13.8	1.28	15.2	15.3	-0.07
Spencer Dinwiddie	63	63	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.19	19	-10	29	15.1	14.1	0.93	14.3	17.1	-2.78
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	59	59	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.12	13	-4	17	15.0	14.3	0.67	14.8	16.0	-1.16
Caron Butler	64	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	1	7	15.7	13.0	2.66	14.8	16.2	-1.35
Andre Drummond	78	77	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	5	-1	14.7	14.9	-0.24	15.2	15.6	-0.37
Cartier Martin	33	31	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	8	-7	13.0	15.7	-2.66	16.2	14.8	1.35
Anthony Tolliver	43	41	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	13	-17	14.3	15.1	-0.81	15.4	15.1	0.29
Jodie Meeks	38	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.11	-4	13	-17	14.3	15.0	-0.67	16.0	14.8	1.16
John Lucas III	34	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	19	-29	14.1	15.1	-0.93	17.1	14.3	2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 92, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,1	92.5%
ATL 104, NYK 112	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1	92.2%
MIN 113, ATL 120	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.33,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.96,0.92,1	92.1%