NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	101		Excitement	7.4 [333]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +34.2%
Dallas Mavericks	111		Comeback	832.3 [2]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -20.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.04	22	51%	0.14	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.02
CJ McCollum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	2	125%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.03	14	57%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Steve Blake	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	61%	0.05	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Kaman	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	19	55%	0.02	5	-0.12	9	89%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	8	11%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.13	0.25	0.04	19	66%	0.38	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	-0.00	0.08	16	54%	0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	15	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	41%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	11	29%	-0.07	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.26,-0.28,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	25	39%	-0.08	4	-0.13	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	2.7	29.0	17.5	23.6	1.6	32.4	2.4	14.6	145.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.6%

DAL +0.6%

DAL +14.5%

DAL +7.6%

DAL +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	15.1	92.7	102.8	104.2
season	15.3	14.6		106.5	107.6
opponent	15.0	15.0		105.0	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	16.5	13.2	13.3	14.5	13.8	14.2
DAL	16.2	14.0	13.9	14.3	21.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	34	33	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.05	6	-16	22	12.9	14.8	-1.91	14.1	15.5	-1.47
Chris Kaman	34	33	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.06	5	-15	20	13.6	14.5	-0.93	14.2	15.5	-1.34
Meyers Leonard	29	27	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-10	10	12.8	14.8	-2.00	13.6	15.6	-2.04
Steve Blake	43	41	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-11	12	13.8	14.5	-0.72	13.5	16.1	-2.57
Nicolas Batum	78	78	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-6	2	14.3	14.0	0.28	14.5	16.6	-2.10
LaMarcus Aldridge	81	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	-4	-2	14.8	12.7	2.09	15.7	13.1	2.58
Robin Lopez	73	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.13	-16	6	-22	14.7	13.2	1.46	15.5	14.3	1.19
Damian Lillard	85	86	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.28	-11	1	-12	14.4	13.5	0.88	15.3	14.3	0.96
Wesley Matthews	80	78	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	5	-20	14.6	13.2	1.44	15.9	12.9	3.02

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chandler Parsons	80	80	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.18	20	-10	30	15.5	14.0	1.46	14.7	12.9	1.86
Devin Harris	59	62	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-3	16	14.6	15.6	-0.97	14.1	14.4	-0.31
Dirk Nowitzki	71	71	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.06	23	-13	36	15.6	14.0	1.65	14.7	13.4	1.32
Monta Ellis	87	87	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.25	8	2	6	15.4	13.7	1.76	14.1	14.5	-0.40
Tyson Chandler	77	78	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	12	-14	15.3	14.5	0.84	14.1	14.6	-0.49
Al-Farouq Aminu	63	66	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	14.1	16.4	-2.33	14.3	14.1	0.23
Charlie Villanueva	16	15	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	17	-24	15.2	15.1	0.12	12.2	14.6	-2.35
Richard Jefferson	17	17	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.03	-6	16	-22	13.4	15.4	-2.05	12.1	14.6	-2.57
Jose Juan Barea	70	69	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.20	-1	11	-12	15.0	15.2	-0.16	14.4	13.8	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.24,0.22,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.54,0.8,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	90.8%
GSW 133, MIL 138	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.84,1	90.3%
ORL 103, MIA 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.78,0.99,1	89.8%