NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	7.1 [388]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +27.0%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	2.5 [1058]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): -16.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.08	-0.00	17	68%	0.24	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Tobias Harris	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.20	0.01	0.03	13	79%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Willie Green	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.00	0.10	-0.02	7	57%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	8	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.08
Channing Frye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28,-0.17	-0.20	-0.02	-0.05	21	32%	-0.06	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.16	0.01	17	62%	0.30	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.04
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.00	6	92%	0.25	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	9	82%	0.21	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.00	3	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.00	9	65%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.09	0.01	15	50%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	24.4	16.4	21.5	2.3	31.6	121.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.0%

ORL -1.3%

SAS +1.1%

SAS +0.8%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.0	15.1	107.3	113.4	104.2
season	14.9	15.4		100.4	106.9
opponent	14.9	15.3		101.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	15.4	17.2	12.8	14.9
SAS	15.2	13.4	14.7	16.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	80	81	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.43	13	-20	33	13.9	19.8	-5.92	15.8	10.7	5.13
Nikola Vucevic	69	70	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.30	8	-15	23	14.0	17.1	-3.06	15.4	13.8	1.65
Evan Fournier	61	63	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.11	1	-8	9	15.4	13.9	1.47	14.8	15.3	-0.50
Kyle O'Quinn	11	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-5	3	18.4	14.4	3.94	15.7	14.9	0.86
Maurice Harkless	25	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-1	-5	14.4	15.1	-0.70	15.2	14.9	0.27
Victor Oladipo	84	85	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-8	9	14.8	15.4	-0.62	14.8	16.4	-1.65
Channing Frye	16	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	6	-19	16.2	14.6	1.57	12.4	15.5	-3.03
Tobias Harris	77	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-7	7	14.8	15.2	-0.35	15.0	14.9	0.03
Ben Gordon	18	18	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	9	-25	16.9	14.4	2.55	12.7	15.5	-2.76
Willie Green	39	39	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.16	-21	14	-35	15.7	14.3	1.46	14.8	15.1	-0.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	59	57	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.18	26	-19	45	14.5	15.8	-1.31	15.3	14.2	1.09
Aron Baynes	28	27	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.02	23	-16	39	14.6	15.1	-0.51	16.6	14.2	2.44
Patty Mills	34	34	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.02	19	-12	31	14.9	15.0	-0.18	17.5	13.5	4.02
Marco Belinelli	31	33	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	-8	23	14.4	15.2	-0.86	17.3	13.6	3.75
Cory Joseph	32	31	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	2	3	14.6	15.2	-0.61	14.4	15.1	-0.72
Kawhi Leonard	78	76	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	10	-13	14.9	15.2	-0.30	14.1	17.6	-3.51
Tony Parker	63	62	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.31	-12	19	-31	15.0	14.9	0.18	13.5	17.5	-4.02
Boris Diaw	39	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.32	-14	21	-35	16.5	13.9	2.58	13.3	15.9	-2.60
Tim Duncan	69	69	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.28	-16	23	-39	15.1	14.6	0.51	14.2	16.6	-2.44
Danny Green	52	52	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.02	-8	15	-23	15.1	14.8	0.23	15.3	14.3	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.48,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.61,0.74,0.79,0.94,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 71, LAL 82	0.5,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	92.6%
UTA 116, HOU 124	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.65,0.54,0.69,0.9,0.93,1,1	92.4%
POR 87, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.1%