NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	8.8 [156]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +16.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	11.3 [99]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -30.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.17	-0.06	0.20	-0.03	14	42%	0.23	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.03
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.01	-0.00	10	67%	0.13	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.02	0.14	-0.11	0.01	13	92%	0.30	4	-0.28	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.00	11	54%	0.04	2	-0.08	6	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
James Ennis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.06	-0.14	-0.00	8	37%	-0.08	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.3	-0.04	-0.27	-0.01	11	50%	-0.24	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	5	87%	0.25	1	-0.13	5	100%	0.05
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	7	72%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.16,0,0,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.04	-0.01	23	59%	0.19	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.10	-0.00	8	33%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Bennett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	6	77%	0.09	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.03
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	3	57%	0.04	4	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	31.0	15.5	26.3	1.8	31.6	134.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +33.4%

MIN +16.5%

MIA -21.3%

MIN +18.9%

MIN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.0	15.1	106.3	107.4	104.2
season	16.0	15.0		102.4	101.2
opponent	15.0	15.3		110.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	15.1	16.7	19.3	16.3
MIN	13.1	14.3	14.6	14.3	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	40	41	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.07	4	-5	9	17.2	15.6	1.64	14.3	13.8	0.53
Shabazz Napier	51	51	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.10	7	-8	15	15.8	16.8	-0.93	13.5	14.6	-1.06
James Ennis	13	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-2	3	16.4	16.3	0.13	15.3	13.9	1.48
Tyler Johnson	26	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	6	-13	16.8	16.1	0.74	14.1	14.0	0.14
Hassan Whiteside	71	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.56	11	-12	23	15.9	17.5	-1.64	14.3	13.2	1.09
Chris Andersen	24	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.09	-12	11	-23	17.5	15.9	1.64	13.2	14.3	-1.09
Mario Chalmers	64	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.51	7	-8	15	15.7	17.5	-1.80	14.2	13.7	0.53
Luol Deng	69	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.62	5	-6	11	15.9	17.2	-1.32	14.2	13.7	0.52
Norris Cole	49	47	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.31	-9	8	-17	17.2	15.3	1.92	14.3	13.8	0.46
Chris Bosh	68	70	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.38	-12	11	-23	16.1	16.8	-0.76	13.5	15.6	-2.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thaddeus Young	81	80	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-4	9	14.0	14.2	-0.20	16.0	17.8	-1.81
Andrew Wiggins	70	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.52	4	-3	7	14.0	14.1	-0.11	16.9	14.3	2.60
Gorgui Dieng	51	52	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.50	4	-3	7	14.0	14.1	-0.05	17.4	15.0	2.41
Kevin Martin	79	80	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.49	1	0	1	13.8	15.1	-1.23	16.1	17.3	-1.18
Ricky Rubio	47	47	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	1	-1	14.3	13.8	0.42	16.0	16.5	-0.54
Mo Williams	48	48	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	0	1	13.8	14.3	-0.42	16.5	16.0	0.54
Zach LaVine	16	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	1	-1	15.1	13.8	1.23	17.3	16.1	1.18
Chase Budinger	5	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	2	-3	11.0	14.2	-3.21	10.6	16.6	-5.99
Nikola Pekovic	44	43	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	4	-7	14.1	14.0	0.05	15.0	17.4	-2.41
Anthony Bennett	34	32	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.06	-6	7	-13	14.6	13.7	0.90	16.5	16.2	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.15,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.85,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.47,0.79,0.55,0.72,1	90.9%
NJN 94, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.87,1	90.3%
ATL 67, ORL 70	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.64,0.69,0.58,1	90.1%