NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	5.9 [628]		MVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): +15.1%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.3 [867]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -20.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	67%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	73%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.04	13	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	13	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	12	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.03	-0.06	-0.00	8	61%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	15	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	0.01	13	43%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.18	-0.03	-0.01	11	19%	-0.13	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	12	69%	0.19	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.02	18	59%	0.17	3	-0.08	13	69%	-0.02
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	-0.00	9	68%	0.11	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	13	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	5	57%	0.01	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.7	30.3	16.3	26.5	2.5	39.4	141.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.3%

DEN +14.5%

DEN +6.4%

DAL -12.0%

DAL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	13.7	15.1	104.9	111.8	104.2
season	14.6	14.6		107.6	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		106.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	14.6	14.8	13.5	14.5
DEN	12.1	14.2	14.6	14.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	39	40	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.22	10	-17	27	15.0	14.2	0.87	14.9	13.0	1.90
Charlie Villanueva	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-10	13	15.1	14.1	0.96	13.2	14.1	-0.86
Devin Harris	58	58	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-13	19	13.8	15.4	-1.54	13.2	14.5	-1.25
Jose Juan Barea	46	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.34	9	-16	25	14.5	14.5	-0.02	13.7	13.8	-0.17
Greg Smith	36	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	3	-13	15.3	14.0	1.30	13.6	13.8	-0.26
Dwight Powell	61	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-6	5	14.2	14.9	-0.65	13.6	13.9	-0.34
Raymond Felton	59	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	6	-19	15.3	13.4	1.81	14.4	12.8	1.61
Monta Ellis	45	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.09	-19	12	-31	14.9	14.2	0.71	13.4	14.0	-0.54
Chandler Parsons	62	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.18	-10	3	-13	13.5	16.0	-2.44	13.6	14.0	-0.38
Richard Jefferson	64	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	3	-13	14.1	15.1	-0.98	13.9	13.6	0.29

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	96	97	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-5	17	13.3	21.0	-7.71	14.4	16.4	-2.01
Jusuf Nurkic	52	54	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.03	13	-6	19	14.0	13.5	0.52	14.2	14.8	-0.61
Wilson Chandler	85	85	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	4	-1	13.8	13.4	0.47	13.9	17.4	-3.51
Gary Harris	24	23	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	0	7	14.3	13.6	0.71	13.3	14.8	-1.47
JJ Hickson	42	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.14	5	2	3	14.7	13.1	1.57	16.2	13.3	2.97
Kenneth Faried	65	64	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	5	-3	13.5	14.2	-0.65	14.4	14.6	-0.18
Arron Afflalo	66	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	7	-7	13.3	14.6	-1.34	14.0	15.4	-1.43
Alonzo Gee	29	28	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	2	3	13.7	13.8	-0.13	16.5	13.7	2.82
Darrell Arthur	45	44	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.26	-7	14	-21	13.2	14.1	-0.90	14.4	14.5	-0.10
Erick Green	6	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	12	-17	21.0	13.3	7.71	16.4	14.4	2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.78,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.93,0.97,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 86, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.72,0.91,0.96,1	94.3%
NYK 99, MEM 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.98,1	94.2%
HOU 102, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.85,1	93.3%