NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	113		Excitement	9.0 [140]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +30.6%
Orlando Magic	120		Comeback	2.7 [252]		LVP	Josh Smith (HOU): -26.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.16	0.15	0.01	7	107%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	15	62%	0.16	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.07
Donatas Motiejunas	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	9	60%	0.23	3	-0.20	2	100%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.02	16	68%	0.22	7	-0.22	6	83%	0.05
Patrick Beverley	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.04	11	77%	0.08	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Alexey Shved	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	5	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.19	-0.09	-0.01	11	21%	-0.13	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.12	-0.00	17	64%	0.30	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Channing Frye	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.12	0.02	10	75%	0.25	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.10	0.00	7	75%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Elfrid Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.06	0.16	-0.01	11	54%	0.26	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.02
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	3	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	6	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.16	-0.16	0.03	19	73%	0.19	3	-0.22	6	83%	-0.01
Devyn Marble	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	8	16%	-0.06	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	29.5	15.7	28.1	2.3	36.5	137.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +40.7%

HOU -5.3%

ORL +8.1%

ORL +6.2%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ORL	NBA	HOU	ORL	NBA
this game	14.3	13.4	15.1	109.7	114.3	104.2
season	14.3	14.9		105.6	100.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		105.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.5	13.3	15.5	14.0	14.3
ORL	12.7	13.4	13.3	14.3	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	50	51	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.11	10	-17	27	14.9	13.7	1.18	13.8	13.0	0.77
Corey Brewer	51	53	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.11	10	-17	27	14.7	13.9	0.86	13.6	13.2	0.47
Alexey Shved	28	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-10	13	15.0	14.1	0.90	14.1	13.1	1.03
Patrick Beverley	75	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	3	-13	14.1	15.0	-0.90	13.1	14.1	-1.03
Dwight Howard	79	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.24	-11	4	-15	14.2	14.7	-0.52	13.2	14.0	-0.75
James Harden	84	86	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	4	-15	14.1	15.4	-1.36	12.9	15.5	-2.61
Trevor Ariza	72	73	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.22	-13	6	-19	14.2	14.6	-0.43	13.7	12.7	0.92
Donatas Motiejunas	76	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	6	-19	14.1	14.8	-0.63	13.4	13.3	0.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	77	76	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.31	14	-7	21	13.3	13.6	-0.25	14.4	14.0	0.42
Channing Frye	85	83	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.19	17	-10	27	12.9	15.6	-2.79	14.5	13.5	1.01
Nikola Vucevic	83	81	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-7	21	13.0	15.0	-2.04	14.3	14.5	-0.18
Victor Oladipo	85	83	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	1	5	13.4	13.1	0.30	14.3	14.2	0.14
Ben Gordon	46	44	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.44	-4	11	-15	14.1	12.8	1.28	13.7	14.8	-1.14
Devyn Marble	52	52	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.08	11	-4	15	13.1	13.7	-0.54	13.9	14.8	-0.90
Kyle O'Quinn	22	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	14	-21	15.0	13.0	2.04	14.5	14.3	0.18
Maurice Harkless	21	21	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	14	-21	14.9	13.0	1.89	14.2	14.3	-0.09
Luke Ridnour	26	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.01	-5	12	-17	13.7	13.3	0.40	14.8	14.2	0.65
Evan Fournier	28	28	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	11	-15	12.9	13.6	-0.63	14.8	14.1	0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.77,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 102, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.69,0.73,1	90.9%
PHX 107, MIN 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.71,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.61,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.69,1	90.9%
SEA 88, PHX 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.58,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.31,0.74,1	90.9%