NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	102		Excitement	9.1 [124]		MVP	Kevin Love (MIN): +29.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	104		Comeback	2.1 [657]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -21.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Williams	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	15	65%	0.32	3	-0.16	10	80%	0.04
Isaiah Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.03	21	61%	0.21	2	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02
Ray McCallum	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	64%	0.08	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	6	40%	-0.00	3	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00
Quincy Acy	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	3	0%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21	-0.06	-0.15	-0.00	15	42%	-0.02	3	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.05,-0.01,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.22	0.03	15	70%	0.44	4	-0.14	7	71%	-0.03
Robbie Hummel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	4	60%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,-0.05,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.01	20	57%	0.14	2	-0.07	14	100%	0.11
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	8	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.10
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	36%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	7	14%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	29.6	15.4	24.4	1.7	38.0	135.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +4.9%

MIN +11.9%

SAC -21.9%

MIN +50.6%

MIN +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIN	NBA	SAC	MIN	NBA
this game	15.7	13.7	15.1	104.1	106.1	105.2
season	15.4	14.6		104.5	107.3
opponent	14.5	14.7		104.7	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.8	18.2	14.8	14.5	15.7
MIN	13.6	13.3	15.2	12.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	50	49	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.20	14	-16	30	15.8	15.6	0.26	13.7	13.7	0.00
Ray McCallum	37	38	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-8	14	16.6	15.1	1.50	14.2	13.3	0.92
Jason Thompson	60	60	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.20	11	-13	24	16.2	14.9	1.38	14.5	12.4	2.05
Quincy Acy	44	45	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.46	16	-18	34	14.7	16.6	-1.91	13.4	13.9	-0.51
Derrick Williams	57	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.55	11	-13	24	15.1	16.6	-1.58	14.0	13.2	0.74
Aaron Gray	39	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.12	-12	10	-22	15.8	15.7	0.09	14.4	13.2	1.22
Reggie Evans	37	38	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.13	-19	17	-36	17.2	14.8	2.37	13.1	14.0	-0.93
Isaiah Thomas	72	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.45	-3	1	-4	15.0	17.8	-2.85	13.3	14.6	-1.26
Rudy Gay	56	54	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.33	-13	11	-24	15.5	16.0	-0.46	12.8	14.7	-1.95
Ben McLemore	38	40	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.22	-21	19	-40	16.2	15.4	0.85	13.4	13.8	-0.38

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Rubio	70	70	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-12	26	13.5	14.2	-0.76	16.0	15.1	0.90
Kevin Love	79	80	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.38	9	-7	16	13.5	14.4	-0.93	15.5	16.8	-1.30
Corey Brewer	68	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-7	16	13.9	13.2	0.63	15.9	15.4	0.50
Robbie Hummel	22	23	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.52	3	-1	4	11.9	14.2	-2.28	13.8	16.3	-2.52
Kevin Martin	80	82	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	-4	10	13.8	13.1	0.69	15.8	15.1	0.78
Gorgui Dieng	75	74	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-6	14	14.0	12.7	1.33	16.4	13.7	2.71
Jose Juan Barea	36	35	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.35	-7	9	-16	14.0	13.5	0.52	15.6	15.8	-0.22
Luc Mbah a Moute	13	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	9	-16	12.7	13.8	-1.13	15.2	15.8	-0.65
Chase Budinger	9	8	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.09	-9	11	-20	14.1	13.6	0.48	14.7	15.8	-1.05
Dante Cunningham	38	37	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	0.02	-16	18	-34	14.2	13.4	0.79	15.6	15.8	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.69,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 91, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.86,0.76,0.74,1	92.3%
NYK 97, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.81,0.84,0.69,0.74,1	91.8%
LAL 101, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.84,1	91.4%