NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	106		Excitement	3.8 [1038]		MVP	Thabo Sefolosha (ATL): +10.8%
Detroit Pistons	103		Comeback	1.2 [806]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): -8.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thabo Sefolosha	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	5	120%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.02	8	68%	0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	8	69%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	87%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	36%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0	-0.05	-0.01	-0.06	21	42%	0.04	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Jeff Teague	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	9	54%	0.05	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Paul Millsap	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	12	53%	0.05	6	-0.07	8	75%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.01	0.06	8	83%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.01	0.05	12	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.01	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	12	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	14	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	0.07	23	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.0	26.1	15.8	23.6	1.7	40.6	135.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.2%

DET -1.5%

ATL +8.4%

DET -5.4%

ATL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	14.5	15.1	108.2	104.0	104.2
season	14.9	15.7		106.7	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.9	14.7	13.5	16.8	14.8
DET	17.4	16.0	15.3	10.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	73	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	-1	5	14.2	16.5	-2.29	14.7	13.6	1.11
Kyle Korver	67	69	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-5	13	14.6	15.2	-0.66	14.9	13.5	1.43
Jeff Teague	71	73	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	2	-1	14.6	15.3	-0.77	14.3	15.0	-0.73
Thabo Sefolosha	31	30	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.12	5	-2	7	14.5	14.9	-0.43	14.9	14.3	0.62
Paul Millsap	63	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	4	-5	14.5	15.3	-0.75	14.2	14.9	-0.68
DeMarre Carroll	67	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.40	-6	9	-15	14.6	15.1	-0.42	14.0	15.5	-1.58
Mike Scott	41	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	1	1	15.0	14.6	0.43	14.4	14.5	-0.02
Dennis Schroder	26	26	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	-1	5	15.9	14.4	1.51	15.0	14.3	0.73
Kent Bazemore	32	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	6	-9	15.3	14.5	0.84	14.2	14.6	-0.44
Elton Brand	19	18	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.12	1	2	-1	17.4	14.2	3.22	14.2	14.5	-0.30

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	20	18	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.16	6	-9	15	13.7	14.7	-0.96	13.6	15.0	-1.49
Anthony Tolliver	38	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-6	9	13.5	15.0	-1.52	14.1	15.2	-1.14
Caron Butler	18	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	5	-13	17.1	13.9	3.23	15.4	14.6	0.75
D.J. Augustin	16	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	7	-17	15.7	14.2	1.46	15.7	14.6	1.09
Kyle Singler	58	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-4	5	14.4	14.6	-0.16	13.8	16.1	-2.31
Brandon Jennings	55	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	2	-7	16.3	12.1	4.23	13.6	16.4	-2.85
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	73	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-7	11	14.1	15.5	-1.46	14.6	15.3	-0.72
Andre Drummond	33	35	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	10	-23	16.8	13.3	3.58	14.1	15.1	-0.98
Jonas Jerebko	31	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	2	-7	13.8	14.8	-0.96	16.2	14.2	2.03
Greg Monroe	76	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-6	9	14.4	14.8	-0.41	15.2	13.5	1.63
Jodie Meeks	49	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	0	-3	14.1	14.8	-0.64	15.9	13.6	2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 109, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0	96.4%
GSW 101, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
UTA 113, MIL 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	96.0%