NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	4.7 [872]		MVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): +12.1%
Charlotte Hornets	94		Comeback	1.1 [431]		LVP	Cody Zeller (CHA): -6.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	85%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	19	52%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Victor Oladipo	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	9	65%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Evan Fournier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	14	41%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tobias Harris	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	16	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kyle O'Quinn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	13	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.17	-0.01	0.05	31	59%	0.18	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	8	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	11	64%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.05	8	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	5	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.3	20.4	15.4	29.1	2.5	38.5	132.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.7%

ORL +2.5%

ORL +3.1%

ORL +12.5%

ORL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	16.5	16.4	15.1	117.2	106.8	104.2
season	14.9	15.6		100.4	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.3		102.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.2	14.8	20.6	17.2	16.5
CHA	18.5	14.6	18.4	14.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.22	6	2	4	16.7	15.8	0.87	16.0	17.9	-1.95
Evan Fournier	64	65	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	6	-4	15.9	18.0	-2.02	16.1	17.5	-1.46
Victor Oladipo	67	67	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	7	-6	16.7	15.7	1.00	16.6	16.0	0.64
Channing Frye	37	39	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-3	14	14.8	17.7	-2.89	17.7	15.5	2.20
Tobias Harris	61	62	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	6	-4	17.6	13.8	3.85	16.5	16.4	0.03
Ben Gordon	30	32	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	-1	10	15.2	17.1	-1.94	17.4	15.9	1.56
Kyle O'Quinn	26	27	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.06	10	-2	12	17.0	16.2	0.81	17.4	16.0	1.39
Nikola Vucevic	63	62	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.39	-6	14	-20	17.5	13.8	3.64	15.6	18.4	-2.76
Dewayne Dedmon	21	20	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	3	2	14.4	17.1	-2.76	16.0	16.6	-0.57

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bismack Biyombo	19	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	0	-8	18.0	16.0	1.99	13.7	17.2	-3.47
Brian Roberts	16	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-1	-6	13.2	17.2	-3.98	13.4	17.2	-3.79
Gerald Henderson	53	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.23	1	-9	10	15.9	17.2	-1.30	17.6	14.7	2.90
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	61	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-6	4	16.8	15.6	1.23	17.9	13.4	4.50
PJ Hairston	22	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-2	-4	17.3	16.2	1.11	14.9	17.0	-2.09
Cody Zeller	36	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	3	-14	16.9	16.1	0.85	15.8	16.9	-1.12
Marvin Williams	50	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-5	2	16.6	16.2	0.41	14.6	19.1	-4.55
Al Jefferson	59	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-10	12	16.1	17.2	-1.09	18.0	13.4	4.64
Kemba Walker	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-8	8	16.9	13.8	3.05	17.1	12.8	4.35
Gary Neal	49	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-2	-4	15.8	17.2	-1.41	15.9	17.2	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	95.6%
WAS 97, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	95.5%
LAL 99, SAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%