NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	99		Excitement	3.9 [987]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +9.9%
San Antonio Spurs	75		Comeback	1.2 [762]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -8.9%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.03	-0.02	16	62%	0.14	1	-0.04	13	46%	-0.06
Nick Van Exel	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	13	65%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Corie Blount	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Bennett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rick Fox	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.03	10	58%	-0.02	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Willie Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brad Lohaus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	9	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	8	41%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	21	51%	-0.05	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.06
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	10	18%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	5	15%	-0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	9	23%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	28.3	15.7	23.5	1.8	30.9	128.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +56.8%

LAL +3.8%

SAS -6.8%

SAS -5.3%

LAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.3	17.2	15.6	107.6	82.4	102.5
season	14.8	15.9		110.0	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.6		97.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.0	11.5	15.7	14.2	14.3
SAS	16.8	17.7	16.3	17.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	66	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.04	19	5	14	14.1	14.8	-0.70	17.7	15.7	2.02
Rick Fox	69	69	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.07	18	6	12	14.0	15.3	-1.33	18.0	14.7	3.24
Eddie Jones	61	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.17	18	6	12	15.2	12.6	2.60	16.1	19.6	-3.47
Derek Fisher	39	41	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	14	-4	14.8	13.9	0.90	17.2	17.2	-0.03
Corie Blount	52	51	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.22	14	10	4	13.4	15.5	-2.12	16.9	17.5	-0.60
Kobe Bryant	52	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.22	14	10	4	13.4	15.5	-2.12	17.2	17.1	0.07
Nick Van Exel	45	42	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	17	-10	14.2	14.4	-0.20	17.4	17.0	0.40
Robert Horry	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	19	-14	15.4	13.8	1.51	17.6	17.0	0.56
Elden Campbell	26	26	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	19	-14	15.4	13.9	1.51	15.5	17.9	-2.36
Jon Barry	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	19	-14	14.5	14.3	0.22	17.7	17.1	0.53
Sean Rooks	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	19	-14	12.4	14.5	-2.11	16.1	17.3	-1.16
Mario Bennett	4	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	24	-24	19.0	14.1	4.91	23.3	17.0	6.36

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Burton	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.20	-7	-17	10	17.7	17.1	0.53	14.5	14.3	0.22
Will Perdue	35	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-23	22	16.4	17.7	-1.23	14.9	14.0	0.89
Brad Lohaus	19	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.28	-13	-11	-2	18.5	16.8	1.69	12.7	14.7	-1.99
Reggie Geary	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.23	-14	-10	-4	16.8	17.4	-0.53	13.6	14.7	-1.04
Carl Herrera	32	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.17	-12	-12	0	16.8	17.4	-0.63	13.9	14.5	-0.66
Monty Williams	44	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-21	18	17.3	17.1	0.25	15.7	13.0	2.68
Vinny Del Negro	57	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-14	4	16.6	18.1	-1.53	14.1	14.7	-0.68
Malik Rose	33	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.21	-16	-8	-8	18.5	16.4	2.08	13.7	14.6	-0.95
Jaren Jackson	68	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-12	0	17.5	16.3	1.18	14.1	14.9	-0.79
Avery Johnson	43	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.01	-13	-11	-2	16.9	17.4	-0.53	15.1	13.6	1.50
Tim Duncan	82	82	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	-5	-14	17.1	17.7	-0.53	14.3	14.5	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 106, DET 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
NOP 119, CHA 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
DET 106, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%