NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	97		Excitement	4.3 [915]		MVP	Juwan Howard (WAS): +6.2%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	1.2 [196]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): -16.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	16	61%	0.07	3	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06
Tracy Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	12	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.07	14	64%	0.11	6	-0.08	5	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	87%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
God Shammgod	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	17	57%	0.06	4	-0.09	3	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	2	117%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	14	55%	-0.01	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.01	0.00	16	38%	-0.06	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	0.01	11	59%	0.00	5	-0.10	12	67%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.00	13	36%	-0.10	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.18	-0.01	-0.03	9	0%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.3	27.3	16.4	25.6	1.6	36.8	134.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +69.3%

MIA -8.1%

MIA -14.5%

WAS +2.0%

WAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.6	105.4	96.7	102.5
season	15.1	15.8		102.8	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.6		99.8	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.4	16.4	14.2	15.5	15.1
MIA	16.9	16.3	17.9	14.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	88	89	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-2	12	14.9	20.0	-5.12	15.9	25.7	-9.78
Calbert Cheaney	70	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	2	4	15.3	14.4	0.91	15.6	18.1	-2.54
Ben Wallace	56	59	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-2	12	14.1	16.7	-2.62	17.6	13.7	3.91
Juwan Howard	87	89	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	3	2	15.5	7.6	7.93	16.1	19.0	-2.89
Chris Whitney	86	86	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.32	3	5	-2	15.1	15.3	-0.25	15.6	24.7	-9.05
God Shammgod	6	6	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	3	2	15.3	15.1	0.25	24.7	15.6	9.05
Darvin Ham	8	5	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	5	-2	11.5	15.4	-3.94	21.8	15.9	5.91
Tracy Murray	44	42	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	9	-10	15.9	14.4	1.55	16.2	16.2	-0.07
Terry Davis	15	14	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	9	-10	16.3	14.9	1.40	14.1	16.6	-2.52

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Walters	20	19	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-15	22	12.4	17.2	-4.80	14.1	15.4	-1.25
Marty Conlon	26	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.25	7	-15	22	14.2	17.0	-2.75	14.8	15.2	-0.35
Eric Murdock	53	52	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-8	8	15.5	17.1	-1.60	15.2	15.0	0.13
Terry Mills	33	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-4	0	15.0	16.9	-1.88	13.9	15.7	-1.88
Mark Strickland	71	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-2	-4	16.1	16.6	-0.47	15.1	15.2	-0.13
Alonzo Mourning	58	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	4	-16	17.2	14.5	2.71	15.1	15.1	-0.04
Voshon Lenard	67	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.08	-11	3	-14	17.1	13.7	3.47	15.2	14.7	0.47
P.J. Brown	65	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	1	-10	16.9	14.6	2.34	15.7	13.6	2.07
Tim Hardaway	67	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	4	-16	16.9	14.4	2.43	15.4	14.4	0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 111, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
CHA 92, WAS 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
LAC 116, GSW 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.18,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%