NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	84		Excitement	4.4 [934]		MVP	James Ennis (MIA): +10.4%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	1.1 [701]		LVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): -14.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Zeller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.03	15	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	13	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Brandan Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jared Sullinger	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	6	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	10	20%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.00	8	73%	0.10	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.03	15	68%	0.14	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	83%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	13	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	13	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.7	30.7	15.8	25.4	2.3	28.5	128.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.9%

MIA +6.6%

BOS -3.5%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	17.6	15.1	91.3	109.9	104.2
season	14.3	16.0		103.1	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.0	15.1	13.8	11.9	13.9
MIA	16.3	17.6	18.9	17.6	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-14	12	15.5	13.8	1.74	22.0	17.2	4.79
Brandan Wright	24	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	-14	12	15.4	13.4	2.03	19.3	17.0	2.25
Jae Crowder	12	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-8	0	17.9	13.3	4.60	19.1	17.4	1.73
Evan Turner	48	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-8	0	13.5	14.4	-0.95	19.2	15.9	3.33
Jameer Nelson	38	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-11	6	13.2	14.4	-1.15	18.4	17.0	1.36
Kelly Olynyk	55	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-12	8	12.7	15.7	-2.95	17.6	17.5	0.14
Jared Sullinger	41	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-9	2	14.9	13.1	1.74	15.9	18.9	-3.01
Jeff Green	63	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-5	-6	13.4	15.0	-1.59	17.3	18.2	-0.86
Avery Bradley	65	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	-2	-12	13.8	14.1	-0.23	16.9	19.3	-2.38
Tyler Zeller	48	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	-5	-6	13.8	14.0	-0.17	17.1	18.1	-1.04
Marcus Smart	58	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-8	0	14.2	13.4	0.75	16.8	18.8	-1.98

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	72	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	2	12	17.3	18.6	-1.26	13.7	14.8	-1.17
Luol Deng	71	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.03	14	2	12	17.4	18.4	-1.05	13.3	16.1	-2.83
Mario Chalmers	68	68	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	2	12	17.2	18.6	-1.37	13.9	14.0	-0.12
Shawne Williams	58	60	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.13	6	10	-4	16.9	18.7	-1.75	14.6	12.7	1.88
Chris Andersen	48	47	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	5	6	16.6	18.6	-1.98	13.8	14.0	-0.26
James Ennis	48	50	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	6	4	18.7	16.4	2.29	13.4	14.5	-1.17
Danny Granger	31	32	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.14	3	13	-10	19.2	16.7	2.44	15.0	13.3	1.71
Udonis Haslem	46	48	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.12	3	13	-10	18.0	17.1	0.93	14.1	13.7	0.49
Justin Hamilton	13	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	11	-6	18.9	17.4	1.56	15.0	13.8	1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 85, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1	95.8%
TOR 64, IND 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
SAC 98, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1	95.3%