NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	4.3 [992]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +14.5%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	1.0 [1236]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -11.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Barnes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	71%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	0.08	-0.00	0.07	14	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	17	54%	0.01	3	-0.06	5	20%	-0.05
Kevin Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	12	41%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.01	-0.00	8	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.16	-0.00	-0.05	15	33%	-0.05	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	19	72%	0.20	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	12	69%	0.10	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	55%	-0.00	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	11	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.6	27.2	17.7	27.3	1.7	35.5	136.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.6%

DAL +2.1%

SAC -2.1%

DAL +10.7%

DAL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.5	102.1	111.5	104.0
season	14.7	14.9		108.1	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.8	13.6	14.1	16.9	15.0
DAL	14.8	14.1	16.6	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	13	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-4	-1	13.8	15.2	-1.33	16.4	14.8	1.54
Darius Songaila	26	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	13.9	15.4	-1.53	16.7	14.4	2.27
Bobby Jackson	42	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-12	15	14.6	15.3	-0.68	15.5	14.6	0.85
Greg Ostertag	21	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-4	-1	15.1	15.0	0.12	15.2	14.9	0.24
Maurice Evans	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	16.7	13.8	2.96	15.2	14.8	0.38
Peja Stojakovic	79	80	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-7	5	14.8	15.9	-1.14	14.6	17.1	-2.47
Brad Miller	75	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-5	1	15.0	15.1	-0.12	14.9	15.2	-0.24
Mike Bibby	54	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.01	-12	3	-15	15.3	14.6	0.68	14.6	15.5	-0.85
Chris Webber	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	15.4	13.9	1.53	14.4	16.7	-2.27
Matt Barnes	60	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-3	-3	14.4	16.1	-1.69	15.1	14.7	0.40

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	85	84	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.11	15	-6	21	14.9	15.6	-0.72	15.2	13.5	1.71
Michael Finley	71	70	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.15	11	-2	13	14.5	16.4	-1.84	15.9	12.6	3.32
Devin Harris	60	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	4	1	14.7	15.4	-0.71	15.9	13.4	2.47
Erick Dampier	67	67	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.28	2	7	-5	14.8	15.5	-0.74	15.5	13.8	1.78
Jerry Stackhouse	44	45	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	1	7	15.7	14.4	1.38	13.9	16.0	-2.05
Josh Howard	37	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	6	-3	14.1	15.6	-1.45	15.6	14.6	0.92
Jason Terry	36	35	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	5	-1	15.4	14.7	0.71	13.4	15.9	-2.47
Marquis Daniels	42	41	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	11	-13	15.1	14.9	0.17	13.9	15.8	-1.92
Alan Henderson	36	38	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	11	-13	16.4	14.2	2.18	13.8	15.8	-2.05
Shawn Bradley	2	2	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	8	-7	16.5	15.0	1.53	16.5	15.0	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 64, IND 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
SAS 97, PHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
MIN 72, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%