NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	8.3 [197]		MVP	Caron Butler (DET): +28.6%
Boston Celtics	109		Comeback	1.9 [744]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): -32.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.01	0.27	-0.00	9	44%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.00	0.05	17	64%	0.19	2	-0.10	11	100%	0.05
Cartier Martin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.02	0.06	18	61%	0.06	2	-0.04	8	37%	-0.18
Jonas Jerebko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	15	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	15	33%	-0.09	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	6	7%	-0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.21	-0.14	-0.03	11	4%	-0.26	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.02	13	65%	0.17	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.04
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.10	0.03	12	54%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.11,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.03	22	59%	0.14	2	-0.05	10	100%	0.07
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.06	0.10	-0.05	8	45%	0.14	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.05
Phil Pressey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	9	37%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	-0.01	6	17%	-0.08	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	27.3	15.4	22.9	1.8	37.4	1.5	21.3	151.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +28.9%

BOS +20.7%

DET -11.2%

BOS +4.4%

BOS +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	14.1	15.1	95.3	101.9	104.2
season	15.7	14.3		104.0	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.3		103.3	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	14.6	16.5	14.4	17.7	14.6	15.6
BOS	14.2	13.0	15.6	15.8	10.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	78	79	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-13	19	14.9	17.6	-2.68	14.5	13.1	1.42
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	84	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-8	9	14.9	18.0	-3.10	14.2	13.7	0.54
Caron Butler	58	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.43	8	-15	23	15.8	15.4	0.43	14.3	13.9	0.42
Greg Monroe	64	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.34	5	-12	17	15.4	15.9	-0.56	14.2	14.0	0.24
Andre Drummond	84	85	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-6	5	15.6	15.5	0.10	14.1	14.0	0.10
Josh Smith	57	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	3	-13	15.6	15.6	0.07	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Jonas Jerebko	8	7	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	18.9	15.3	3.54	15.6	14.0	1.55
Kyle Singler	50	50	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.13	-15	8	-23	15.1	16.1	-1.01	13.9	14.3	-0.42
Cartier Martin	24	23	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	1	-9	18.0	14.9	3.10	13.7	14.2	-0.54
D.J. Augustin	29	28	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	6	-19	17.6	14.9	2.68	13.1	14.5	-1.42

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	56	58	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.26	19	-12	31	13.1	15.2	-2.05	15.5	15.7	-0.14
Rajon Rondo	68	71	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.25	12	-5	17	13.8	14.7	-0.86	15.8	15.1	0.69
Gerald Wallace	14	16	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	-3	13	14.9	14.0	0.93	19.6	14.9	4.73
Evan Turner	53	53	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.43	-3	10	-13	14.0	14.2	-0.24	15.9	15.3	0.53
Brandon Bass	38	39	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	9	-11	15.4	13.4	2.06	17.3	14.6	2.69
Jeff Green	75	73	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	7	-7	14.3	13.7	0.53	14.7	17.5	-2.74
Phil Pressey	34	32	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	7	-7	15.6	13.4	2.19	15.7	15.6	0.08
Marcus Smart	10	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	7	-7	13.0	14.2	-1.24	15.0	15.7	-0.66
Jared Sullinger	64	63	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	7	-7	13.5	15.0	-1.51	14.8	16.7	-1.96
Marcus Thornton	12	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	9	-11	13.2	14.2	-0.98	17.2	15.4	1.77
Avery Bradley	57	55	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.20	4	3	1	13.8	14.5	-0.75	14.7	16.6	-1.90
Tyler Zeller	54	53	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	10	-13	14.8	13.4	1.44	15.5	15.7	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.91,0.54,0.85,0.94,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 90, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.46,0.69,0.96,1,1,1	90.0%
MIA 91, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.54,0.69,0.74,0.9,0.95,1	89.9%
LAC 104, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.46,0.69,0.78,0.91,0.9,1	89.8%