NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	8.0 [200]		MVP	Christian Laettner (DAL): +6.6%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	2.4 [579]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -31.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.05	0.01	14	66%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	58%	0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
A.C. Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.08	-0.10	0.02	17	62%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	8	45%	-0.08	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-0.00	9	23%	-0.11	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.11	-0.20	0.01	16	38%	-0.23	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.15

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	7	68%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	67%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Loy Vaught	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,-0.13,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	22	52%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	18	47%	0.08	2	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.18	-0.05	-0.01	20	25%	-0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.3	2.5	23.4	16.5	23.8	2.0	32.0	1.4	9.5	132.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.8%

MIA -2.9%

DAL +16.2%

MIA -1.1%

DAL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	17.6	15.5	95.8	97.9	100.9
season	16.3	15.2		98.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	16.1		101.2	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.8	14.5	16.5	14.9	16.2	15.5
DAL	17.6	16.8	15.5	20.0	18.9	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	49	51	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-5	6	14.3	16.8	-2.46	18.2	17.0	1.20
Brian Grant	65	67	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-8	12	15.1	16.4	-1.29	17.9	16.8	1.09
Tim Hardaway	70	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-5	6	16.0	14.3	1.68	17.3	18.3	-0.98
A.C. Green	34	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.14	-7	3	-10	15.5	15.5	-0.07	16.6	18.2	-1.59
Dan Majerle	35	35	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	1	-6	15.1	15.8	-0.68	18.0	17.4	0.60
Bruce Bowen	69	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.37	0	-4	4	16.2	13.7	2.51	18.1	16.4	1.73
Eddie Jones	73	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	2	-8	15.6	15.1	0.49	17.4	18.1	-0.71
Anthony Mason	80	82	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	4	-12	15.7	14.5	1.17	17.2	19.8	-2.62

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	60	59	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-3	10	17.4	17.9	-0.58	16.3	14.3	1.95
Hubert Davis	39	38	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.01	16	-12	28	16.8	18.1	-1.24	15.7	15.4	0.32
Howard Eisley	86	85	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.45	-2	6	-8	17.4	19.1	-1.70	15.4	16.6	-1.21
Michael Finley	91	89	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.39	0	4	-4	17.9	13.5	4.36	15.7	13.3	2.33
Gary Trent	26	27	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	-3	10	16.4	18.0	-1.59	15.7	15.5	0.21
Greg Buckner	46	42	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	6	-8	19.1	16.2	2.89	14.4	16.4	-1.99
Dirk Nowitzki	80	79	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.28	-5	9	-14	17.6	17.3	0.36	15.4	16.2	-0.81
Steve Nash	21	21	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	4	-4	18.4	17.4	1.01	15.8	15.4	0.38
Loy Vaught	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	4	-4	2.0	17.7	-15.75	0.0	15.5	-15.52
Christian Laettner	35	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	5	-6	17.3	17.8	-0.52	15.3	15.6	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.54,0.69,0.74,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 90, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.46,0.69,0.96,1,1,1	92.6%
MEM 89, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.77,0.98,1	90.9%
WAS 120, CLE 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.59,0.41,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.92,0.85,0.96,0.96,0.46,0.69,0.66,0.45,0.83,1	90.6%