NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	11.5 [31]		MVP	Robert Sacre (LAL): +16.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	94		Comeback	5.5 [260]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -28.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	15	58%	0.17	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.12,0.12	0.00	0.11	-0.00	8	50%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.15
Timofey Mozgov	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	59%	0.15	1	-0.08	4	75%	-0.04
JaVale McGee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	9	38%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03
JJ Hickson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	43%	-0.01	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.18,-0.09,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	10	60%	0.09	5	-0.19	10	70%	-0.08
Arron Afflalo	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	17	39%	-0.08	1	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Nate Robinson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	4	10%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Randy Foye	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.14	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Sacre	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.08	-0.00	6	72%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	-0.00	10	33%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.05	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	8	46%	0.03	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	15	52%	-0.02	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.13
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	12	27%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.16,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.28,-0.22,-0.28	-0.28	-0.06	-0.22	0.00	24	47%	-0.16	4	-0.12	10	70%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.3	2.7	26.2	16.5	29.3	1.6	36.7	2.4	18.2	161.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +65.6%

LAL -27.7%

DEN +36.3%

LAL -29.7%

DEN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.1	94.4	87.0	104.2
season	14.6	15.5		103.4	101.9
opponent	14.7	15.3		108.9	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	12.3	14.5	13.7	16.6	16.8	14.4
LAL	14.8	14.9	15.1	16.9	13.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	88	89	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.33	16	-9	25	13.7	17.7	-3.98	15.3	14.5	0.78
Timofey Mozgov	61	60	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-5	17	15.1	13.5	1.67	15.0	15.4	-0.45
Arron Afflalo	86	87	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-2	11	13.8	16.7	-2.87	15.4	14.3	1.09
Danilo Gallinari	62	62	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-3	13	15.3	13.1	2.21	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Wilson Chandler	83	84	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.34	6	1	5	14.0	15.8	-1.78	15.5	14.0	1.45
JaVale McGee	13	14	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	4	-1	8.7	15.2	-6.51	15.8	15.1	0.71
Darrell Arthur	39	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.06	2	5	-3	14.2	14.5	-0.32	14.7	15.4	-0.70
JJ Hickson	23	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	7	-7	13.7	14.6	-0.97	16.4	14.8	1.61
Randy Foye	21	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	9	-11	16.7	13.8	2.87	14.3	15.4	-1.09
Kenneth Faried	40	39	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.07	-12	19	-31	15.2	13.9	1.26	14.6	15.5	-0.86
Nate Robinson	19	19	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.03	-9	16	-25	17.7	13.7	3.98	14.5	15.3	-0.78

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Sacre	40	37	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-10	13	14.9	15.3	-0.46	14.1	14.6	-0.46
Ronnie Price	38	35	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-7	7	14.3	15.6	-1.31	14.6	14.3	0.28
Wayne Ellington	31	32	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.14	-4	-3	-1	15.6	15.0	0.67	15.1	14.1	0.93
Ed Davis	43	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-3	-1	15.7	14.8	0.96	14.7	14.2	0.44
Wesley Johnson	72	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	15.4	14.7	0.71	15.3	12.7	2.59
Jordan Hill	87	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-4	1	15.2	14.9	0.38	13.7	17.6	-3.98
Kobe Bryant	90	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-2	-3	15.2	14.8	0.40	13.6	18.5	-4.90
Jeremy Lin	68	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-5	3	15.9	13.9	1.93	14.6	14.0	0.63
Nick Young	61	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	1	-9	14.3	16.3	-2.04	14.5	14.3	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.71,0.84,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.43,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 97, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.57,0.59,0.5,0.31,0.54,0.32,0.08,0	89.9%
BOS 122, IND 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.72,0.57,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.37,0.24,0.16,0	89.0%
LAL 99, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.64,0.8,0.95,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.27,0	88.8%