NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	89		Excitement	5.3 [763]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +17.6%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	1.3 [1007]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -11.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Singler	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	62%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	12	46%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.02
Brandon Jennings	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.02	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.07,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09	-0.06	0.01	0.03	17	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Josh Smith	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	19	42%	-0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.00	6	100%	0.20	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	12	58%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.02	0.05	15	74%	0.21	3	-0.10	8	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	12	44%	0.07	2	-0.07	10	50%	-0.03
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.5	27.8	14.7	26.0	0.8	35.3	130.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +66.5%

DET -15.3%

ATL +1.8%

DET -2.9%

DET -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.7	15.1	95.7	105.3	104.2
season	15.7	14.9		104.0	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.8	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	16.4	16.6	14.4	16.1
ATL	14.0	14.9	14.1	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	26	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-11	12	15.6	16.4	-0.78	13.7	15.0	-1.30
Caron Butler	62	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-16	22	15.4	17.6	-2.16	14.2	15.6	-1.36
Greg Monroe	40	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-6	2	16.6	15.8	0.90	14.4	14.9	-0.57
D.J. Augustin	48	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-11	12	15.2	17.1	-1.92	15.1	14.2	0.82
Kyle Singler	43	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-7	4	15.3	16.9	-1.60	14.7	14.7	-0.04
Brandon Jennings	45	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	1	-12	17.1	15.2	1.92	14.2	15.1	-0.82
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	61	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.02	-16	6	-22	16.8	14.9	1.83	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Josh Smith	67	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	1	-12	16.4	15.6	0.78	15.0	13.7	1.30
Andre Drummond	73	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.16	-13	3	-16	16.5	15.0	1.45	15.3	12.7	2.67

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	65	65	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.03	26	-16	42	15.1	13.8	1.32	16.5	15.3	1.17
Paul Millsap	70	71	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.18	19	-9	28	15.1	13.5	1.57	16.4	15.2	1.25
Kyle Korver	68	69	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.19	16	-6	22	15.0	13.7	1.35	16.5	15.2	1.31
Thabo Sefolosha	31	33	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	5	0	15.3	14.4	0.88	17.2	15.6	1.57
Pero Antic	28	29	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	1	8	16.2	14.0	2.20	16.8	15.8	1.00
Al Horford	66	64	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	9	-8	14.0	16.2	-2.20	15.8	16.8	-1.00
DeMarre Carroll	65	61	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	9	-8	14.2	15.8	-1.62	15.4	17.6	-2.26
Shelvin Mack	24	23	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.05	-2	12	-14	14.2	14.8	-0.62	15.7	16.3	-0.53
Mike Scott	24	22	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.03	-9	19	-28	13.5	15.1	-1.57	15.2	16.4	-1.25
Dennis Schroder	29	28	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.18	-16	26	-42	13.8	15.1	-1.32	15.3	16.5	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.87,0.84,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 91, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.87,0.82,0.75,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.88,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%
BOS 83, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.77,0.68,0.64,0.8,0.78,0.89,0.85,1,1,1	93.3%
CHA 107, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.9,0.82,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.86,0.84,1	93.0%