NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	7.8 [286]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +23.3%
New York Knicks	95		Comeback	3.0 [231]		LVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (NYK): -16.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.15	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.15	0.12	0.05	0.03	14	67%	0.20	2	-0.06	14	71%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	5	62%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Willie Green	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	2	125%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	11	41%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02	15	59%	0.16	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	1	117%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tobias Harris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	11	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Andrew Nicholson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Elfrid Payton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.08	0.00	17	67%	0.25	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.02
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	5	64%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	9	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cleanthony Early	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Wear	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.11	0.00	16	53%	-0.00	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	12	42%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	8	12%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.5	29.0	16.8	26.8	1.7	39.2	144.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.9%

ORL +23.1%

NYK -2.0%

ORL +0.8%

NYK -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NYK	NBA	ORL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.4	16.9	15.1	109.0	106.7	104.2
season	14.9	16.1		100.4	98.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		108.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	15.2	14.3	16.5	15.4
NYK	18.5	15.4	17.7	16.3	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tobias Harris	61	61	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.49	4	-2	6	15.9	14.4	1.49	16.8	17.4	-0.60
Evan Fournier	68	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	0	2	15.7	14.3	1.42	16.8	17.5	-0.74
Nikola Vucevic	71	69	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	0	2	15.9	13.7	2.19	16.9	17.2	-0.33
Channing Frye	68	69	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	-1	4	15.7	14.3	1.42	17.6	14.6	2.96
Luke Ridnour	46	48	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	-3	8	14.7	16.1	-1.40	17.3	16.6	0.71
Elfrid Payton	43	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	5	-8	16.1	14.7	1.40	16.6	17.3	-0.71
Andrew Nicholson	39	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	0	2	14.1	16.4	-2.34	16.1	17.6	-1.45
Willie Green	21	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	2	-2	14.3	15.7	-1.42	17.5	16.8	0.74
Aaron Gordon	28	29	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	7	-12	14.3	15.9	-1.65	17.0	16.9	0.13

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway Jr.	33	33	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.23	8	-10	18	17.3	16.7	0.57	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Cleanthony Early	1	0	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-1	0	3.0	17.1	-14.10	0.0	15.4	-15.42
Amar'e Stoudemire	37	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.12	2	-4	6	16.8	17.0	-0.18	13.9	16.5	-2.61
Travis Wear	10	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	3	-8	18.2	16.8	1.42	13.5	15.7	-2.24
Shane Larkin	30	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-2	2	17.5	16.6	0.89	17.0	14.6	2.34
Jason Smith	47	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-1	0	16.6	17.3	-0.65	15.1	15.7	-0.64
Carmelo Anthony	57	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.39	7	-9	16	16.4	17.9	-1.55	16.0	14.3	1.73
Quincy Acy	37	38	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	6	-14	17.0	16.9	0.05	15.3	15.5	-0.22
Iman Shumpert	47	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	3	-8	17.8	16.0	1.88	15.5	15.3	0.16
Samuel Dalembert	48	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-3	4	17.6	16.1	1.52	16.9	13.8	3.13
J.R. Smith	58	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-1	0	16.1	18.6	-2.56	14.9	16.3	-1.34
Pablo Prigioni	40	39	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	5	-12	16.9	17.0	-0.13	15.1	15.7	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 86, IND 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.21,0.22,0.08,0	92.1%
PHX 104, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.2,0.06,0.1,0.02,0	91.9%
DEN 103, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0	91.5%