NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	6.9 [434]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +14.8%
New York Knicks	85		Comeback	2.6 [502]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): -16.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.06	0.13	0.04	13	53%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Mike Scott	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.06	-0.00	7	50%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Pero Antic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	9	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.04	8	64%	0.11	4	-0.13	6	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	14	59%	0.08	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	11	65%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.03	12	75%	0.10	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cleanthony Early	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	5	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	20%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.11	0.02	25	45%	0.05	3	-0.21	5	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	30.0	15.8	27.5	1.8	45.3	145.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +25.4%

ATL +18.1%

ATL +0.7%

ATL +6.0%

NYK -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	NYK	NBA	ATL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.8	16.0	15.1	102.2	92.4	104.2
season	14.9	16.1		106.7	98.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		108.3	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	17.0	15.3	15.8	15.8
NYK	16.9	15.7	16.0	15.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Schroder	51	51	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.34	12	-6	18	17.2	13.9	3.37	15.1	17.2	-2.07
DeMarre Carroll	67	68	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-1	8	15.6	16.5	-0.93	16.2	15.4	0.88
Kyle Korver	61	64	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	16.1	15.2	0.85	15.7	16.7	-0.94
Paul Millsap	63	66	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	-1	8	15.3	17.0	-1.64	15.9	16.3	-0.40
Al Horford	61	63	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	8	-10	14.8	18.0	-3.21	15.9	16.2	-0.32
Pero Antic	28	29	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	-4	14	18.0	14.8	3.21	16.2	15.9	0.32
Mike Scott	26	26	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	7	-8	17.0	15.3	1.64	16.3	15.9	0.40
Thabo Sefolosha	41	43	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	12	-18	15.2	16.3	-1.07	16.2	15.9	0.31
Jeff Teague	47	50	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	8	-10	14.7	17.0	-2.28	16.9	15.0	1.88

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	31	32	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-9	12	15.9	16.1	-0.23	15.7	15.9	-0.17
Cleanthony Early	15	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	1	-8	15.9	16.0	-0.11	17.8	15.4	2.41
Pablo Prigioni	41	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-6	6	17.2	15.1	2.12	16.2	15.5	0.77
Tim Hardaway Jr.	47	46	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-7	8	15.4	16.6	-1.22	13.6	18.2	-4.62
Amar'e Stoudemire	49	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-4	2	16.5	15.5	1.05	15.9	15.7	0.20
Iman Shumpert	59	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-4	2	15.4	17.2	-1.86	15.7	16.1	-0.41
J.R. Smith	52	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-5	4	15.8	16.3	-0.45	16.7	14.7	1.90
Shane Larkin	46	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	1	-8	16.1	15.9	0.17	16.6	15.0	1.58
Jason Smith	39	37	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	0	-6	15.8	16.2	-0.39	16.6	15.2	1.36
Carmelo Anthony	81	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	3	-12	16.2	14.5	1.68	15.2	19.4	-4.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.24,0.29,0.15,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 101, PHX 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.05,0	92.5%
CHH 109, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.09,0.04,0	92.1%
MEM 94, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.21,0.18,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.17,0	91.7%