NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	5.7 [673]		MVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): +22.4%
Charlotte Hornets	96		Comeback	1.2 [718]		LVP	Lance Stephenson (CHA): -15.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawne Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.03	18	52%	0.10	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Justin Hamilton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	39%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Norris Cole	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	8	30%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.11	0.04	-0.08	0.06	18	57%	0.00	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.02

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.09	0.03	6	100%	0.25	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	25	51%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	6	72%	0.10	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	35%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	12	29%	-0.08	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	28.9	14.8	29.3	2.4	44.4	144.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +38.3%

MIA -11.0%

CHA +32.6%

MIA -11.3%

CHA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.1	96.7	104.3	104.2
season	16.0	15.6		102.4	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.3		102.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	14.5	16.0	14.3	15.2
CHA	16.1	17.6	16.0	15.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	13	13	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-9	11	16.5	15.0	1.50	19.1	15.6	3.43
James Ennis	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-8	9	18.0	14.8	3.21	16.1	16.1	-0.04
Shabazz Napier	52	51	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-13	19	14.1	16.6	-2.48	16.2	16.0	0.15
Luol Deng	52	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.23	2	-9	11	14.2	16.4	-2.17	17.3	14.6	2.71
Dwyane Wade	66	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-6	5	14.7	16.3	-1.58	16.4	15.5	0.92
Shawne Williams	59	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-3	-1	14.8	15.8	-1.00	16.2	16.0	0.16
Chris Bosh	74	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-2	-3	14.7	17.1	-2.41	15.8	17.5	-1.69
Norris Cole	40	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	6	-19	16.6	14.1	2.48	16.0	16.2	-0.15
Justin Hamilton	32	33	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	7	-21	16.7	14.4	2.27	15.5	16.5	-0.96
Mario Chalmers	61	62	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	2	-11	15.8	13.9	1.92	14.9	18.6	-3.66

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Hairston	31	30	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.04	23	-16	39	14.4	17.0	-2.63	17.4	14.1	3.35
Kemba Walker	67	65	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.15	12	-5	17	15.8	17.0	-1.25	15.2	15.1	0.14
Cody Zeller	36	36	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.05	17	-10	27	14.9	16.9	-1.99	15.9	14.7	1.27
Lance Stephenson	68	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	7	-7	16.5	15.2	1.25	15.4	14.5	0.93
Jason Maxiell	29	29	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	1	5	16.0	16.2	-0.14	16.4	14.6	1.86
Al Jefferson	60	60	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	7	-7	17.0	14.6	2.40	15.0	15.5	-0.55
Marvin Williams	59	59	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.32	-9	16	-25	16.1	16.2	-0.17	14.3	16.8	-2.52
Gary Neal	49	49	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.33	-10	17	-27	16.6	15.7	0.90	14.2	16.3	-2.12
Brian Roberts	25	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	12	-17	17.0	15.8	1.25	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Gerald Henderson	36	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	6	-5	16.4	15.9	0.52	14.2	15.8	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.87,0.84,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, NOH 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.9,0.92,1	94.3%
OKC 108, ORL 121	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.0%
CHA 94, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.85,1	93.9%