NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	9.2 [117]		MVP	JaVale McGee (DEN): +14.6%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	1.6 [321]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -15.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	9	68%	0.15	1	-0.04	13	85%	0.03
Carl Landry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.06	-0.02	12	58%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,0.03,0.04,0.09	-0.06	0.16	0.00	13	42%	0.16	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.05
DeMarcus Cousins	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	13	54%	0.09	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.00
Ramon Sessions	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	6	59%	0.14	3	-0.10	10	100%	0.07
Reggie Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray McCallum	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nik Stauskas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Derrick Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.02	9	73%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	4	71%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	83%	0.12	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	15	42%	0.09	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.06	-0.02	13	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.11	0.01	7	71%	0.04	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	13	38%	0.01	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.4	33.5	15.7	31.1	1.7	42.3	157.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.0%

SAC +14.9%

SAC +2.0%

SAC +3.3%

SAC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	12.5	15.1	104.8	100.0	104.2
season	14.9	14.6		103.7	103.4
opponent	15.3	14.8		106.6	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.2	16.2	14.2	15.4	15.0
DEN	11.5	12.6	12.4	13.4	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray McCallum	28	29	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	0	5	15.0	14.9	0.10	13.6	12.1	1.50
DeMarcus Cousins	58	57	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-1	7	13.6	16.7	-3.15	13.0	11.8	1.24
Darren Collison	67	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	1	3	13.6	17.3	-3.73	12.7	12.0	0.76
Rudy Gay	51	50	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	-1	7	13.8	16.1	-2.29	13.8	11.3	2.51
Jason Thompson	50	51	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	1	3	13.6	16.2	-2.64	13.7	11.3	2.33
Omri Casspi	62	62	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	1	3	15.2	14.6	0.68	10.8	14.9	-4.09
Nik Stauskas	3	3	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.02	1	4	-3	14.0	15.0	-0.99	12.0	12.5	-0.48
Ramon Sessions	43	42	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	6	-7	17.1	13.5	3.65	12.5	12.4	0.10
Derrick Williams	23	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.02	1	4	-3	17.5	14.3	3.22	10.6	12.9	-2.37
Reggie Evans	47	48	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	6	-7	16.7	13.6	3.15	11.8	13.0	-1.24
Carl Landry	49	48	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	7	-9	17.2	13.0	4.17	11.9	13.0	-1.13
Ben McLemore	44	46	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.03	-2	7	-9	13.7	15.9	-2.20	12.4	12.5	-0.17

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	33	31	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.10	7	-12	19	12.2	12.6	-0.46	13.5	15.6	-2.14
Darrell Arthur	35	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-6	7	11.4	13.0	-1.56	16.1	14.4	1.77
Jusuf Nurkic	18	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	9.4	13.1	-3.65	16.5	14.6	1.91
Timofey Mozgov	33	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-3	1	13.4	12.0	1.35	15.7	14.6	1.03
Danilo Gallinari	29	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-2	-1	11.1	13.0	-1.88	16.2	14.4	1.75
Nate Robinson	24	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	12.7	12.4	0.26	19.0	13.7	5.35
Randy Foye	39	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	0	-5	11.6	13.0	-1.35	16.3	14.1	2.16
Wilson Chandler	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-5	5	13.2	11.2	2.01	14.8	15.2	-0.35
Arron Afflalo	70	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-5	5	12.7	12.0	0.74	14.0	16.9	-2.89
Ty Lawson	81	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-4	3	12.4	12.7	-0.26	13.7	19.0	-5.35
Alonzo Gee	13	13	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	4	-13	15.0	12.1	2.89	12.6	15.3	-2.68
Kenneth Faried	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	3	-11	13.0	10.5	2.55	14.6	16.4	-1.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.15,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 101, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.09,0.18,0	93.1%
POR 90, SEA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.32,0.47,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.34,0.27,0	92.4%
UTA 109, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.24,0.11,0.15,0.01,0	92.3%