NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	7.7 [290]		MVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): +31.8%
Charlotte Hornets	108		Comeback	75.9 [28]		LVP	Lance Stephenson (CHA): -18.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.01	-0.02	10	77%	0.16	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.15,0.06	-0.05	0.09	-0.02	15	49%	0.15	4	-0.10	5	60%	-0.03
John Henson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.01	8	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	17	50%	0.02	4	-0.06	10	100%	0.07
Zaza Pachulia	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	-0.00	9	40%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.04,0.32	0.32	-0.02	0.39	0.05	26	41%	0.32	0	0.00	11	45%	-0.06
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.09	0.03	12	79%	0.22	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	8	77%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.03
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	65%	0.06	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	11	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.06	0.04	15	42%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Lance Stephenson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.01	12	27%	-0.16	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	29.6	15.4	27.2	1.6	39.3	1.4	12.9	154.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +16.5%

MIL -17.6%

CHA +59.7%

MIL -11.6%

CHA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHA	NBA	MIL	CHA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.5	15.1	103.9	103.8	104.2
season	14.5	15.6		100.5	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.7		102.6	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	13.4	14.6	15.2	13.3	16.5	14.3
CHA	14.8	18.1	15.4	17.2	18.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	26	25	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.03	10	-12	22	13.7	14.5	-0.85	20.8	15.2	5.62
Giannis Antetokounmpo	46	45	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.20	4	-6	10	14.5	14.2	0.28	17.6	15.7	1.81
John Henson	23	22	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.05	9	-11	20	14.3	14.3	-0.02	18.4	16.0	2.38
O.J. Mayo	46	46	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.13	5	-7	12	14.5	14.1	0.40	17.6	15.7	1.90
Ersan Ilyasova	22	21	0.25	-0.75	1.01	-0.04	10	-12	22	14.9	14.2	0.69	19.1	15.9	3.28
Jared Dudley	43	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-2	2	13.8	14.7	-0.84	15.0	17.6	-2.57
Jabari Parker	69	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.14	-13	11	-24	15.0	13.0	1.96	15.7	18.4	-2.65
Zaza Pachulia	31	33	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	6	-14	12.7	15.0	-2.32	14.5	17.5	-2.99
Larry Sanders	50	51	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.42	-7	5	-12	14.5	14.1	0.42	16.6	16.4	0.23
Khris Middleton	70	72	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.46	-6	4	-10	13.9	15.2	-1.35	16.2	17.3	-1.18
Brandon Knight	76	79	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.47	-12	10	-22	14.5	13.7	0.85	15.2	20.8	-5.62

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	45	46	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.74	3	-1	4	16.9	16.3	0.63	14.3	14.4	-0.07
Kemba Walker	79	77	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-10	22	15.2	20.8	-5.62	14.4	14.1	0.27
Marvin Williams	68	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.63	3	-1	4	16.2	17.2	-1.06	13.9	15.1	-1.16
Al Jefferson	82	79	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.52	5	-3	8	15.9	18.8	-2.90	14.2	14.7	-0.54
Gerald Henderson	20	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.22	-9	11	-20	13.4	17.3	-3.87	14.1	14.4	-0.33
Lance Stephenson	78	77	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.32	9	-7	16	16.9	15.3	1.68	14.2	14.7	-0.47
Jason Maxiell	22	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.08	-3	5	-8	18.8	15.9	2.90	14.7	14.2	0.54
Cody Zeller	36	38	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.19	-1	3	-4	17.2	16.2	1.06	15.1	13.9	1.16
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	56	55	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.21	-1	3	-4	16.4	16.6	-0.22	14.3	14.4	-0.07
Brian Roberts	25	25	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.03	-10	12	-22	20.8	15.2	5.62	14.1	14.4	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.54,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.18,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.2,0.27,1	90.4%
IND 104, PHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.32,0.59,1	89.4%
TOR 111, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	88.7%