NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	125		Excitement	9.1 [129]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +23.3%
Houston Rockets	130		Comeback	237.1 [11]		LVP	Randy Foye (DEN): -17.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.17	0.09	0.04	16	76%	0.28	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Miller	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.01	14	68%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.05	-0.02	17	44%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jan Vesely	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.03	24	50%	0.16	7	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	68%	0.10	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Randolph	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Randy Foye	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	11	46%	-0.12	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.02	0.24	0.02	23	55%	0.39	5	-0.16	12	92%	0.07
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.07	-0.00	8	83%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.15	0.00	11	46%	0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	0.12	-0.03	11	56%	0.23	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.03	12	68%	0.20	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	11	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.08
Terrence Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	16	41%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.3	1.5	30.1	15.8	24.0	1.5	42.3	2.5	11.3	157.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +52.9%

HOU +14.3%

DEN -15.0%

HOU +0.2%

DEN -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	13.4	15.1	107.8	112.1	105.2
season	14.0	14.3		104.5	109.5
opponent	15.2	14.9		105.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	11.7	15.0	13.5	16.0	15.0	14.1
HOU	12.3	11.7	15.9	11.0	22.5	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jan Vesely	41	42	0.37	-0.87	1.25	0.23	5	-10	15	14.4	13.9	0.59	13.1	13.5	-0.33
Quincy Miller	75	74	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.14	14	-19	33	13.0	15.9	-2.89	14.0	12.3	1.67
Darrell Arthur	46	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-2	-1	14.8	13.5	1.30	10.7	14.9	-4.29
Anthony Randolph	12	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	3	-11	14.9	14.0	0.96	14.4	13.2	1.22
Timofey Mozgov	63	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-5	5	13.0	15.3	-2.36	13.5	13.1	0.38
Aaron Brooks	104	103	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	13.9	15.7	-1.79	13.3	14.2	-0.90
Evan Fournier	82	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.0	11.9	3.12	13.2	13.7	-0.46
Randy Foye	76	77	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.42	-12	7	-19	14.3	13.6	0.63	13.6	12.8	0.76
Kenneth Faried	81	83	-0.97	0.47	-1.45	-0.53	-15	10	-25	14.2	13.8	0.41	14.0	11.7	2.36

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chandler Parsons	92	93	1.04	-0.54	1.58	0.40	22	-17	39	13.5	12.8	0.66	14.0	14.2	-0.20
Jeremy Lin	76	78	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.50	9	-4	13	13.1	13.8	-0.64	13.7	14.8	-1.05
Omer Asik	95	95	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.37	11	-6	17	13.5	12.9	0.61	13.8	15.2	-1.38
James Harden	96	97	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	4	-3	13.1	14.7	-1.63	13.7	15.9	-2.19
Francisco Garcia	66	65	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.29	3	2	1	13.7	12.9	0.73	15.4	12.3	3.12
Omri Casspi	25	22	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.14	9	-4	13	13.4	13.3	0.06	15.3	13.8	1.50
Isaiah Canaan	40	38	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.15	-4	9	-13	13.8	13.1	0.64	14.8	13.7	1.05
Terrence Jones	54	55	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	0.19	-17	22	-39	14.1	12.7	1.31	12.7	15.3	-2.64
Donatas Motiejunas	36	37	-0.47	0.97	-1.43	-0.20	-9	14	-23	11.8	14.0	-2.24	14.7	13.8	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.35,0.21,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 110, GSW 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.11,0.26,0.54,0.67,0.72,0.89,0.84,1	87.9%
HOU 92, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.3,0.16,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.54,0.55,0.9,0.68,0.83,1	86.8%
DET 108, MEM 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.22,0.04,0.46,0.69,0.72,0.89,1,1	86.5%