NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	122		Excitement	15.7 [3]		MVP	Chase Budinger (MIN): +58.8%
Miami Heat	121		Comeback	5.0 [122]		LVP	Norris Cole (MIA): -16.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chase Budinger	0.59	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.59,0.59	0.21	0.38	0.00	9	96%	0.76	2	-0.18	7	71%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.33	0.04	0.28	-0.01	9	57%	0.34	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Kevin Love	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.08,0.07,0,-0.1,0.29	-0.05	0.34	0.00	27	47%	0.39	4	-0.11	5	80%	-0.01
Ricky Rubio	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16	-0.01	0.17	0.01	9	62%	0.29	4	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.09	0.00	2	70%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.06
Ronny Turiaf	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.12	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.05
Robbie Hummel	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	4	37%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	15	42%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,0.03,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.4	0.40	-0.02	0.41	-0.00	19	55%	0.58	5	-0.18	6	83%	0.10
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.11	0.01	14	63%	0.38	3	-0.20	10	80%	-0.31
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.27,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	24	59%	0.33	4	-0.17	10	80%	-0.05
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	83%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	8	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	0.00	10	50%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	5	0%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	23.4	2.6	29.1	16.4	28.5	2.3	31.6	2.5	15.8	1.6	22.4	176.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +94.4%

MIA -5.9%

MIA -34.1%

MIA -0.6%

MIA -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	15.0	15.1	108.9	107.1	105.2
season	14.6	15.6		107.3	109.7
opponent	15.8	14.5		105.1	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIN	16.6	17.5	14.8	17.0	13.6	15.9
MIA	14.1	13.8	13.4	17.3	17.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	66	67	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.71	7	-6	13	14.9	17.4	-2.57	13.6	17.1	-3.53
Ronny Turiaf	46	47	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	-5	11	16.6	15.4	1.17	16.5	14.0	2.52
Ricky Rubio	92	93	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	-3	7	15.4	18.5	-3.14	14.9	15.5	-0.65
Jose Juan Barea	78	78	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	-5	11	15.8	16.2	-0.41	14.4	16.5	-2.13
Robbie Hummel	23	24	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	-5	11	18.3	15.3	3.06	16.2	14.7	1.51
Kevin Love	89	89	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.36	-5	6	-11	15.3	18.3	-3.06	14.7	16.2	-1.51
Chase Budinger	69	70	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.43	-8	9	-17	16.1	15.7	0.36	15.9	13.6	2.28
Shabazz Muhammad	6	5	0.12	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	-3	7	19.5	15.7	3.78	17.4	14.9	2.49
Gorgui Dieng	51	51	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	5	-9	16.3	15.6	0.72	13.7	16.1	-2.43
Luc Mbah a Moute	40	41	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	-0.29	-11	12	-23	17.1	15.2	1.87	17.1	13.8	3.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	21	20	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.18	5	-6	11	12.7	15.5	-2.83	17.1	15.7	1.50
Toney Douglas	35	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-2	3	13.7	15.6	-1.93	16.1	15.8	0.28
Chris Andersen	41	42	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-3	5	14.8	15.2	-0.37	17.3	15.1	2.15
Rashard Lewis	31	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	3	-7	15.8	14.7	1.13	16.9	15.6	1.32
Shane Battier	1	0	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-1	1	1.0	15.1	-14.14	0.0	15.9	-15.92
LeBron James	95	95	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.37	7	-8	15	14.9	15.7	-0.77	15.4	18.8	-3.42
Mario Chalmers	77	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-5	9	14.7	15.8	-1.12	16.0	15.8	0.21
Ray Allen	52	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.35	1	-2	3	16.0	14.2	1.86	15.3	16.5	-1.17
Udonis Haslem	54	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	9	-19	15.1	14.9	0.25	15.6	16.2	-0.54
Norris Cole	70	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	8	-17	16.2	13.0	3.18	15.8	16.2	-0.43
Chris Bosh	88	86	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.55	-2	1	-3	14.9	15.5	-0.59	15.8	16.5	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.62,0.5,0.54,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.17,0.24,0.07,0.1,0.26,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.27,0.54,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 116, NYK 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.2,0.27,0.45,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.46,0.61,0.37,0.57,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.55,0.58,0	87.4%
CHA 129, SAC 128	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.17,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.14,0.07,0.14,0.04,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.24,0.17,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.58,0	86.6%
CHI 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	86.1%