NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	83		Excitement	5.3 [763]		MVP	Chris Andersen (MIA): +23.7%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	2.6 [744]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -15.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Novak	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.00	6	100%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	68%	0.16	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	78%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
John Salmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.03	14	55%	0.01	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Nando De Colo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	11	44%	-0.02	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.10	-0.02	5	100%	0.24	1	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	8	71%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	16	51%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.01	20	63%	0.21	6	-0.17	11	82%	0.01
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	34.0	15.7	25.1	2.4	28.6	131.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +22.4%

MIA +20.4%

MIA +7.1%

MIA +4.8%

TOR -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	17.7	15.1	102.5	113.4	105.2
season	15.9	15.6		107.2	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.1		105.1	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	19.7	17.5	18.1	17.7
MIA	17.9	17.2	15.2	20.7	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	33	34	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-16	22	16.7	18.3	-1.64	17.2	18.0	-0.79
Charles Hayes	10	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-13	16	17.3	17.7	-0.42	16.6	17.8	-1.22
Greivis Vasquez	36	38	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-16	22	16.9	18.2	-1.30	19.1	16.5	2.62
Steve Novak	42	42	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.07	3	-13	16	18.3	17.0	1.34	17.7	17.6	0.14
Nando De Colo	16	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-12	14	20.1	17.1	2.99	19.8	17.1	2.64
Landry Fields	4	4	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-5	0	15.0	17.8	-2.81	16.5	17.7	-1.23
Patrick Patterson	15	16	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	-7	4	14.9	18.3	-3.44	17.4	17.7	-0.29
Terrence Ross	43	43	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	2	-14	17.6	17.8	-0.23	15.9	19.6	-3.66
DeMar DeRozan	64	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	-2	-6	17.8	17.2	0.62	18.9	13.3	5.56
Jonas Valanciunas	56	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-4	-2	17.5	18.1	-0.66	17.6	17.9	-0.30
Amir Johnson	39	39	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	7	-24	18.4	17.0	1.48	18.1	17.3	0.82
Kyle Lowry	47	46	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	9	-28	18.2	16.9	1.35	16.1	19.7	-3.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	56	56	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.07	26	-16	42	18.3	16.3	2.05	18.3	16.2	2.12
LeBron James	66	66	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.11	22	-12	34	17.4	18.9	-1.57	17.7	17.4	0.33
Toney Douglas	38	39	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.13	10	0	10	19.8	15.9	3.90	18.3	17.1	1.19
Mario Chalmers	62	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	1	8	18.8	14.0	4.79	17.0	19.8	-2.83
Udonis Haslem	29	30	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	8	-6	18.4	17.3	1.10	15.9	18.7	-2.81
Chris Andersen	44	42	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.21	-4	14	-18	17.5	17.8	-0.27	18.0	17.3	0.74
James Jones	43	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	15	-20	16.5	18.9	-2.39	18.5	16.7	1.83
Norris Cole	37	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	16	-22	15.4	19.5	-4.08	17.2	18.0	-0.80
Rashard Lewis	35	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	14	-18	16.2	18.8	-2.57	17.5	17.8	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.89,0.9,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.8,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 92, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.8%
SAC 104, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.5%
BOS 91, CLE 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.94,1,1	93.3%