NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	109		Excitement	9.0 [134]		MVP	Blake Griffin (LAC): +31.2%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	11.3 [130]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -33.7%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Griffin	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.31	0.00	0.30	-0.01	14	58%	0.40	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	9	80%	0.17	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Willie Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.15,0.06,0.06,-0.02	0.15	-0.13	0.03	18	67%	0.11	2	-0.13	10	90%	0.05
Glen Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.08	0.03	9	61%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	12	47%	0.03	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.07
Matt Barnes	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	12	43%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	0.00	5	108%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	0.00	13	82%	0.28	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	3	80%	0.10	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	47%	0.00	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.31	-0.31	-0.01	-0.28	0.02	15	52%	-0.07	3	-0.24	10	60%	-0.12
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.34	-0.34	-0.18	-0.17	-0.01	19	29%	-0.25	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.5	29.4	17.4	33.5	2.7	46.4	157.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +13.8%

LAC +19.1%

LAC +13.0%

LAC +2.0%

LAC +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	DAL	NBA	LAC	DAL	NBA
this game	13.4	15.8	15.1	111.2	104.0	105.2
season	14.3	15.3		111.0	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.4		107.0	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	13.1	12.3	16.4	12.2	13.4
DAL	15.1	17.7	15.6	14.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	82	83	0.95	-0.45	1.41	0.43	18	-12	30	13.1	15.2	-2.08	16.0	14.7	1.23
Matt Barnes	76	77	0.93	-0.43	1.35	0.28	22	-16	38	13.1	14.7	-1.59	16.4	13.5	2.87
DeAndre Jordan	78	76	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.34	17	-11	28	12.9	15.6	-2.77	16.7	12.7	4.01
Blake Griffin	82	82	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-9	24	13.1	15.1	-2.00	16.3	13.1	3.21
Jamal Crawford	59	61	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	1	4	12.8	14.4	-1.60	14.9	17.2	-2.24
Willie Green	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	8	-10	15.0	13.3	1.65	14.2	15.9	-1.72
Glen Davis	16	17	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.06	-9	15	-24	15.1	13.1	2.00	13.1	16.3	-3.21
Jared Dudley	20	23	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.02	-11	17	-28	15.6	12.9	2.77	12.7	16.7	-4.01
Darren Collison	49	48	-0.42	0.92	-1.35	-0.16	-9	15	-24	14.6	12.3	2.29	16.7	14.9	1.85
Danny Granger	22	22	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.04	-16	22	-38	14.7	13.1	1.59	13.5	16.4	-2.87

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	39	38	0.48	-0.98	1.47	-0.01	17	-23	40	13.3	17.4	-4.16	15.6	12.1	3.56
Devin Harris	41	39	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.19	4	-10	14	14.2	16.9	-2.70	13.8	13.2	0.53
Brandan Wright	51	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.48	13	-19	32	13.8	17.9	-4.11	13.8	13.0	0.85
DeJuan Blair	3	4	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	0	-6	16.7	15.7	0.92	13.5	13.4	0.05
Samuel Dalembert	45	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	7	-20	18.0	13.9	4.03	12.7	14.1	-1.38
Vince Carter	56	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.44	5	-11	16	15.5	16.1	-0.64	13.6	13.3	0.25
Dirk Nowitzki	74	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-4	2	15.7	16.1	-0.46	13.5	13.3	0.25
Shawn Marion	51	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.13	-21	15	-36	17.3	14.2	3.09	13.2	13.7	-0.51
Monta Ellis	75	72	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.42	-10	4	-14	16.6	13.1	3.56	12.6	15.7	-3.11
Jose Calderon	60	61	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.42	-17	11	-28	16.5	14.6	1.96	13.1	14.0	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 84, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.89,0.9,0.42,0	90.5%
DEN 98, OKC 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.42,0	90.3%
BOS 86, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0	89.7%