NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	3.3 [1130]		MVP	David Lee (GSW): +12.5%
Golden State Warriors	103		Comeback	1.3 [1265]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -12.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Harkless	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.05	5	86%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	14	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Tobias Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	11	56%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.05	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Doron Lamb	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	8	35%	-0.00	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	8	50%	0.03	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	12	71%	0.13	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.00	0.03	13	82%	0.19	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	14	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	5	92%	0.07	1	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.01	-0.05	10	54%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.09	8	28%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ognjen Kuzmic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Nedovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	-0.05	11	25%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.5	26.4	15.8	29.5	2.8	26.5	127.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +26.9%

GSW +9.8%

GSW +1.3%

GSW +10.2%

GSW +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	15.1	93.7	108.4	105.2
season	15.3	14.2		100.4	105.9
opponent	15.3	15.0		102.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	15.3	16.8	13.8	15.5
GSW	15.9	13.5	12.6	17.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dewayne Dedmon	23	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.21	7	-21	28	13.8	16.1	-2.26	17.5	13.9	3.56
Doron Lamb	26	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-20	26	13.7	16.2	-2.54	17.3	13.8	3.43
Victor Oladipo	54	55	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-18	22	14.4	17.0	-2.66	15.2	14.2	1.04
Andrew Nicholson	24	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-12	10	14.9	15.8	-0.89	15.4	14.5	0.90
Kyle O'Quinn	44	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.28	-17	3	-20	16.3	14.8	1.50	13.0	16.3	-3.27
E'Twaun Moore	59	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.12	-4	-10	6	14.4	17.4	-3.07	15.2	14.1	1.05
Tobias Harris	55	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-12	10	14.9	16.3	-1.40	15.0	14.5	0.48
Jameer Nelson	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-1	-12	16.9	14.3	2.57	14.3	15.2	-0.89
Nikola Vucevic	44	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	0	-14	16.7	14.5	2.22	14.5	15.0	-0.53
Arron Afflalo	44	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.16	-18	4	-22	16.9	14.3	2.60	14.1	15.4	-1.32
Maurice Harkless	57	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.12	-17	3	-20	16.5	14.1	2.47	13.7	16.4	-2.65

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	62	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	4	6	14.8	14.7	0.17	16.0	14.8	1.16
David Lee	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.14	20	-6	26	15.3	13.9	1.44	16.4	13.9	2.53
Klay Thompson	65	65	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.17	20	-6	26	14.2	15.9	-1.69	16.1	14.4	1.71
Stephen Curry	62	62	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.25	21	-7	28	14.4	15.5	-1.08	16.7	13.4	3.28
Draymond Green	73	73	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	5	4	14.0	17.3	-3.25	15.3	16.2	-0.84
Marreese Speights	46	47	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.24	0	14	-14	14.5	15.0	-0.46	15.2	15.9	-0.73
Jordan Crawford	37	37	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.29	-5	19	-24	14.9	14.7	0.18	13.8	16.6	-2.83
Steve Blake	57	57	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	13	-12	15.4	13.9	1.47	14.8	16.7	-1.96
Ognjen Kuzmic	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	19.0	14.5	4.51	11.7	15.8	-4.13
Nemanja Nedovic	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	19.0	14.5	4.51	11.7	15.8	-4.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 73, MEM 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
POR 83, MEM 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
DEN 82, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%