NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	3.4 [1120]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): +12.7%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	1.2 [555]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -10.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	100%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.04	15	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	58%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Shannon Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	7	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	8	61%	0.03	6	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.01	-0.04	18	54%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	10	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.07	11	38%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	13	59%	0.07	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	7	53%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	12	43%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	10	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	26.0	16.0	26.2	2.4	30.6	125.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +15.5%

DET +5.9%

DET +14.5%

DET +13.5%

DET +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	14.7	15.3	15.1	103.1	114.7	105.2
season	15.0	15.0		109.8	104.7
opponent	15.0	15.0		108.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	15.0	13.4	14.2	14.7
DET	13.8	13.8	13.3	21.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shannon Brown	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-16	23	12.6	14.9	-2.30	22.3	14.5	7.77
Patty Mills	28	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-12	15	14.7	14.6	0.08	16.1	15.1	1.00
Cory Joseph	51	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-19	29	14.0	15.4	-1.35	16.5	14.1	2.44
Aron Baynes	43	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-9	9	16.2	13.4	2.78	13.9	16.4	-2.46
Matt Bonner	24	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.34	9	-18	27	13.1	15.2	-2.09	19.4	13.9	5.55
Nando De Colo	51	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-11	13	14.9	14.4	0.51	14.6	16.2	-1.54
Jeff Ayres	32	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.19	2	-11	13	13.7	15.1	-1.40	17.1	14.4	2.67
Boris Diaw	50	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-1	-7	14.1	15.3	-1.24	14.5	16.2	-1.74
Marco Belinelli	60	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	2	-13	14.1	15.6	-1.47	15.3	15.4	-0.01
Tony Parker	42	43	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	9	-27	15.5	14.1	1.40	14.4	16.1	-1.74
Danny Green	49	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.10	-20	11	-31	15.5	13.8	1.64	13.9	16.8	-2.91
Tim Duncan	45	45	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.11	-21	12	-33	15.4	14.1	1.30	14.0	16.6	-2.64

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	71	73	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-6	21	15.7	14.4	1.25	15.1	13.4	1.71
Brandon Jennings	63	65	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-6	21	15.8	14.4	1.47	14.6	14.7	-0.13
Kyle Singler	63	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-7	23	15.3	15.4	-0.14	14.6	14.8	-0.24
Josh Smith	77	79	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	0	9	15.0	16.9	-1.97	14.5	15.4	-0.90
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	39	42	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.34	-3	12	-15	16.7	14.4	2.37	14.9	14.5	0.35
Andre Drummond	54	53	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.07	5	4	1	14.3	16.8	-2.48	15.2	14.0	1.17
Jonas Jerebko	18	19	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	9	-9	16.9	15.0	1.97	14.6	14.7	-0.04
Rodney Stuckey	58	58	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.25	-6	15	-21	15.1	15.8	-0.71	13.8	15.9	-2.07
Will Bynum	32	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.21	-6	15	-21	14.4	15.8	-1.47	14.7	14.6	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 89, HOU 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
GSW 94, ORL 111	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
ATL 75, MIN 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%