NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	103		Excitement	6.6 [507]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +34.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	1.6 [730]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -28.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	15	62%	0.12	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	11	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julyan Stone	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	12	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.02,-0.14,-0.14	0.05	-0.19	0.00	10	65%	0.02	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.16,-0.28	0.06	-0.28	0.06	29	54%	0.08	3	-0.36	9	67%	0.08

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.34	0.34	0.10	0.23	-0.02	15	60%	0.34	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.02	0.04	11	87%	0.17	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	4	37%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.02	10	64%	0.00	4	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.03	22	47%	-0.02	4	-0.10	14	79%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	32.3	14.8	29.1	1.7	35.7	144.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +51.7%

TOR -10.9%

TOR -33.4%

POR +40.3%

POR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	POR	NBA	TOR	POR	NBA
this game	15.6	14.1	15.1	105.1	110.4	105.2
season	15.9	15.1		107.2	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.1		106.5	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.9	14.3	15.7	19.2	15.6
POR	12.4	12.8	16.3	15.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	22	22	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-9	15	14.7	15.8	-1.15	14.5	14.0	0.45
Charles Hayes	27	25	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.43	16	-19	35	15.0	15.8	-0.74	15.4	13.6	1.75
Julyan Stone	9	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-2	1	13.8	15.8	-1.98	14.9	14.0	0.87
Tyler Hansbrough	11	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	1	-5	12.3	16.0	-3.72	12.5	14.3	-1.79
Amir Johnson	33	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	1	-5	15.1	15.8	-0.68	13.1	14.6	-1.50
Terrence Ross	54	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	1	-5	15.6	15.6	0.01	13.3	15.2	-1.93
Patrick Patterson	54	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.41	5	-8	13	16.0	15.0	1.00	15.0	13.0	1.99
DeMar DeRozan	81	80	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.47	6	-9	15	16.1	13.1	2.97	14.6	11.6	3.05
Jonas Valanciunas	61	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	13	-29	16.5	14.0	2.48	13.6	15.1	-1.55
Kyle Lowry	89	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-1	-1	15.8	13.8	1.98	14.0	14.9	-0.87
John Salmons	49	46	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.25	-17	14	-31	14.8	16.3	-1.55	14.1	14.1	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	77	78	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.31	7	-4	11	13.7	15.9	-2.23	15.5	15.7	-0.16
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	76	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	2	-1	13.8	15.0	-1.16	15.0	17.5	-2.43
Wesley Matthews	65	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	2	-1	14.4	13.5	0.96	16.1	14.3	1.83
Robin Lopez	56	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	3	-3	14.2	13.9	0.31	16.7	14.0	2.66
Nicolas Batum	68	70	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.39	-5	8	-13	14.0	14.3	-0.26	15.5	15.8	-0.30
Joel Freeland	40	41	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	0	3	13.9	14.2	-0.31	14.0	16.7	-2.66
Mo Williams	33	35	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.19	-1	4	-5	15.7	13.3	2.43	16.3	15.1	1.20
Dorell Wright	14	14	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	-2	7	11.4	14.6	-3.13	14.1	15.8	-1.67
Thomas Robinson	22	22	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	1	1	15.0	13.8	1.16	17.5	15.0	2.43
CJ McCollum	31	30	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	1	1	14.2	14.0	0.18	14.3	16.1	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.79,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 87, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.75,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.79,0.68,0.72,1	93.6%
MIN 91, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.74,1	93.4%
ORL 93, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.94,0.85,1	93.2%