NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	5.5 [724]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (NYK): +20.2%
New York Knicks	102		Comeback	2.4 [198]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -7.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.03	0.04	17	71%	0.24	6	-0.16	11	64%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	4	55%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	15	64%	0.12	3	-0.08	6	0%	-0.10
Norris Cole	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	9	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	30%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.07	0.01	13	70%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.00	8	75%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.03	24	57%	0.15	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Toure Murry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	12	54%	0.09	4	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	14	46%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.0	29.5	18.7	23.6	3.3	33.3	135.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +26.4%

MIA -7.4%

NYK +14.7%

NYK +13.7%

NYK +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.9	16.8	15.1	105.7	114.6	105.2
season	15.6	16.0		109.7	106.4
opponent	15.4	15.8		107.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.4	15.8	16.4	20.0	15.9
NYK	16.9	15.5	17.9	17.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	67	70	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.16	7	-17	24	15.0	19.1	-4.11	17.5	14.0	3.54
Roger Mason Jr.	11	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-4	-2	16.7	15.8	0.91	13.1	17.3	-4.15
Rashard Lewis	47	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-7	4	14.5	17.6	-3.14	17.9	15.5	2.45
LeBron James	73	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-11	12	15.6	17.9	-2.30	17.3	13.8	3.53
Norris Cole	65	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-6	2	14.8	19.2	-4.41	17.1	15.9	1.17
Michael Beasley	18	17	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	4	-18	18.2	15.3	2.89	13.4	17.6	-4.24
Ray Allen	43	45	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	18.2	13.7	4.50	16.7	16.8	-0.11
Chris Andersen	38	39	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	-1	-8	18.4	14.0	4.33	15.3	18.0	-2.72
Dwyane Wade	73	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	4	-18	15.8	16.6	-0.85	16.7	17.3	-0.64

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amar'e Stoudemire	49	47	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.15	19	-9	28	16.5	17.1	-0.66	17.5	14.1	3.34
Iman Shumpert	79	78	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.06	14	-4	18	17.2	13.5	3.70	15.7	18.1	-2.43
Carmelo Anthony	77	76	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	4	2	17.2	13.8	3.41	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Andrea Bargnani	77	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	6	-2	17.2	14.2	3.03	15.9	15.9	0.02
Raymond Felton	72	69	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	7	-4	17.3	14.5	2.79	15.2	18.6	-3.31
Toure Murry	18	18	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	5	0	13.7	17.6	-3.84	18.6	15.2	3.31
Tim Hardaway Jr.	27	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	11	-12	14.1	18.0	-3.89	16.8	15.6	1.22
Kenyon Martin	46	47	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	16.9	16.7	0.22	14.4	17.7	-3.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 97, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	94.2%
ORL 83, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 77, DAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%