NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	7.2 [386]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +24.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	95		Comeback	2.4 [924]		LVP	Jordan Farmar (LAL): -23.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.10	0.00	5	120%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	18	55%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	17	64%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.07
Norris Cole	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.00	6	58%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	14	51%	0.02	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.04
Mario Chalmers	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	18	53%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	12	65%	0.12	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Ryan Kelly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Xavier Henry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	61%	0.15	4	-0.16	7	57%	-0.05
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.05	0.05	10	60%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	6	43%	-0.06	1	-0.04	9	56%	-0.07
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.16	-0.09	-0.02	7	19%	-0.09	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.7	30.3	18.6	28.6	2.0	36.0	145.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.3%

LAL -6.9%

LAL -5.1%

MIA +25.9%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	15.1	107.4	101.1	105.2
season	15.6	14.0		109.7	102.9
opponent	14.8	15.8		108.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	14.1	16.5	17.0	15.2
LAL	16.2	17.2	14.1	14.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	77	76	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.31	17	-11	28	14.9	16.4	-1.49	15.8	14.1	1.65
Norris Cole	56	56	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-6	18	15.0	15.4	-0.39	15.6	15.2	0.35
Chris Bosh	62	62	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	-1	8	15.2	15.1	0.15	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Mario Chalmers	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.30	3	3	0	15.3	14.9	0.39	14.8	16.6	-1.83
LeBron James	71	71	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	6	-6	14.9	16.0	-1.07	14.8	17.3	-2.52
Rashard Lewis	37	37	0.07	0.42	-0.35	0.10	-1	7	-8	16.0	14.7	1.29	15.8	15.2	0.51
Udonis Haslem	17	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	7	-8	15.0	15.2	-0.23	14.2	15.7	-1.55
Shane Battier	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	8	-10	14.4	15.7	-1.31	16.0	15.1	0.91
Chris Andersen	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	6	-6	15.2	15.2	0.01	18.4	14.9	3.51
Ray Allen	40	41	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	11	-16	16.2	14.5	1.71	15.9	15.1	0.85

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Kelly	31	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-9	12	15.1	15.6	-0.47	16.4	14.5	1.89
Jordan Hill	46	47	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-6	6	16.1	14.8	1.34	15.6	14.8	0.72
Shawne Williams	34	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-1	-4	14.8	15.8	-1.02	14.3	15.7	-1.45
Xavier Henry	50	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	0	-6	16.3	14.5	1.82	15.4	14.9	0.50
Nick Young	59	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-9	12	15.8	14.9	0.94	16.1	13.7	2.43
Jodie Meeks	74	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-5	4	15.1	16.7	-1.59	14.8	16.6	-1.85
Pau Gasol	57	57	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	1	-8	15.2	15.8	-0.51	14.7	16.0	-1.29
Wesley Johnson	55	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	6	-18	15.3	15.7	-0.38	14.3	16.4	-2.19
Jordan Farmar	64	66	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	-1	-4	15.2	16.0	-0.86	15.5	14.6	0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.41,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.2,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 108, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0	92.1%
LAL 113, NJN 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.56,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.35,0.29,0.41,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.06,0,0	91.6%
SEA 106, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.36,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.2,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.01,0	91.4%