NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	107		Excitement	8.6 [174]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +52.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	110		Comeback	4.3 [477]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (NOP): -35.5%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.05	0.17	0.00	13	62%	0.26	2	-0.04	8	62%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.00	14	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	17	53%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	14	45%	0.01	2	-0.13	1	100%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.08,-0.16,-0.39,-0.36	-0.06	-0.31	-0.01	22	43%	-0.22	2	-0.13	5	60%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.52,0.52	0.52	0.14	0.38	-0.00	21	63%	0.57	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	3	78%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	16	53%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	8	37%	0.00	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.02	-0.12	0.01	11	58%	0.00	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	24	36%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.0	26.8	14.8	25.0	1.6	33.7	126.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +34.3%

POR +12.9%

NOP -16.8%

POR +20.0%

NOP -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	POR	NBA	NOP	POR	NBA
this game	14.6	16.0	15.1	112.6	118.3	105.2
season	15.5	15.1		105.6	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.3		106.5	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.9	15.5	13.8	15.3	14.6
POR	16.8	13.3	17.5	16.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Morrow	30	29	0.42	-0.93	1.35	-0.01	15	-18	33	14.0	14.9	-0.94	15.4	16.3	-0.92
Alexis Ajinca	35	33	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-5	7	13.8	15.1	-1.33	16.0	16.0	-0.06
Austin Rivers	30	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	3	-9	13.5	15.2	-1.67	15.0	16.4	-1.37
Al-Farouq Aminu	42	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	6	-15	15.8	13.7	2.14	15.1	16.7	-1.60
Tyreke Evans	54	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-7	11	13.4	16.2	-2.78	16.7	15.1	1.60
Anthony Davis	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-2	1	15.0	13.5	1.49	16.1	15.8	0.20
Jrue Holiday	70	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	15.0	13.6	1.36	16.3	15.2	1.14
Ryan Anderson	81	80	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	2	-7	14.9	13.3	1.59	16.0	16.2	-0.17
Eric Gordon	60	61	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.35	-12	9	-21	15.1	13.8	1.29	16.4	15.2	1.16

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	72	73	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.39	13	-10	23	15.7	17.2	-1.52	15.1	13.1	1.96
Wesley Matthews	64	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.37	4	-1	5	15.9	16.3	-0.44	16.2	11.6	4.61
Robin Lopez	58	57	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.33	3	0	3	15.8	16.3	-0.53	16.1	12.5	3.53
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	72	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.32	2	1	1	16.6	14.2	2.40	14.8	14.2	0.62
Nicolas Batum	66	68	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	5	-7	16.5	14.9	1.63	15.0	13.8	1.16
Meyers Leonard	22	23	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	2	-1	14.2	16.6	-2.40	14.2	14.8	-0.62
Dorell Wright	29	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	4	-5	16.3	15.9	0.44	11.6	16.2	-4.61
Mo Williams	48	50	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	6	-9	15.9	16.2	-0.28	13.2	16.2	-2.96
Joel Freeland	35	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	5	-7	16.3	15.8	0.53	12.9	15.8	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.2,0.24,0.33,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.85,0.73,0.53,0.48,0.34,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, SEA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.54,0.68,0.92,1	90.4%
BOS 105, GSW 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.47,0.92,1	90.4%
NJN 79, IND 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.55,0.33,0.42,1	90.3%