NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	119		Excitement	8.7 [166]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +65.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	116		Comeback	3.0 [565]		LVP	Nicolas Batum (POR): -6.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.65	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.65	0.19	0.47	0.01	23	68%	0.73	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.16	0.11	-0.01	10	79%	0.28	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Joel Freeland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02	0.00	0.01	0.03	22	52%	0.06	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.03
Thomas Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.01	4	100%	0.07	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	13	44%	0.01	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.08	-0.00	19	64%	0.24	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.13	0.13	-0.04	0.15	-0.01	7	31%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Gee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Bennett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.04
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.02	-0.02	0.10	-0.05	0.06	22	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	14	41%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	25.3	15.4	30.3	2.4	34.5	132.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +38.2%

POR +17.0%

POR +16.7%

CLE -20.4%

CLE -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	CLE	NBA	POR	CLE	NBA
this game	14.6	14.9	15.1	122.7	118.4	105.2
season	15.1	15.2		109.6	102.8
opponent	15.3	14.8		106.5	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	12.6	16.3	14.6	15.1	14.6
CLE	14.5	15.7	15.4	14.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	76	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.55	5	-2	7	14.3	15.6	-1.36	14.7	16.0	-1.30
Nicolas Batum	75	76	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.55	5	-2	7	14.3	15.6	-1.36	14.7	16.0	-1.30
Wesley Matthews	70	70	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.47	3	0	3	14.7	14.3	0.40	14.8	15.3	-0.52
Damian Lillard	80	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.41	0	3	-3	14.1	16.9	-2.85	14.2	18.2	-3.98
Joel Freeland	55	55	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.06	9	-6	15	15.2	13.8	1.37	14.9	15.0	-0.01
Mo Williams	43	44	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	1	1	15.2	14.1	1.07	15.8	14.2	1.58
Dorell Wright	25	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.11	2	1	1	15.0	14.4	0.61	16.0	14.5	1.50
Thomas Robinson	22	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.14	-2	5	-7	15.6	14.3	1.36	16.0	14.7	1.30
Robin Lopez	40	41	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.05	-9	12	-21	14.2	14.8	-0.62	15.6	14.5	1.09

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Clark	17	18	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.08	4	-7	11	15.4	14.9	0.49	14.6	14.6	-0.04
CJ Miles	39	39	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-8	13	15.4	14.6	0.77	13.5	15.3	-1.75
Jarrett Jack	54	54	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.19	9	-12	21	14.9	15.0	-0.13	15.0	14.0	1.01
Anderson Varejao	50	49	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-9	15	14.8	15.1	-0.34	15.1	14.1	1.04
Anthony Bennett	14	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	2	-7	13.4	15.2	-1.86	14.0	14.7	-0.69
Tristan Thompson	67	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-4	5	15.1	14.6	0.49	14.9	13.9	1.03
Matthew Dellavedova	21	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	0	-3	15.8	14.7	1.03	12.6	15.1	-2.43
Dion Waiters	62	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	5	-13	15.5	14.0	1.50	15.2	13.5	1.73
Kyrie Irving	70	68	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.52	-2	-1	-1	14.6	15.9	-1.37	14.9	13.8	1.08
Andrew Bynum	55	55	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	7	-17	15.4	14.4	0.99	14.2	15.1	-0.94
Alonzo Gee	41	40	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.49	-12	9	-21	13.8	15.8	-2.05	14.0	15.0	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.27,0.08,0.16,0,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, OKC 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.68,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0	92.0%
ATL 79, MIL 72	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.46,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.05,0.09,0	91.9%
GSW 114, LAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.07,0	91.6%