NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	6.7 [452]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +24.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	86		Comeback	2.5 [496]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -35.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.25	0.21	0.13	0.09	18	80%	0.35	3	-0.10	8	87%	-0.00
Jason Kidd	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	62%	0.08	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Shawn Marion	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.01	9	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	10	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.04	12	54%	0.09	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	12	27%	-0.15	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	11	68%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	82%	0.11	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	9	44%	0.03	3	-0.15	9	67%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	19	38%	-0.11	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.28,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	18	30%	-0.27	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.8	30.2	18.6	28.2	3.5	38.5	152.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +62.4%

OKC -0.6%

OKC -13.3%

OKC -3.4%

DAL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	OKC	NBA	DAL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.5	15.1	15.3	111.1	93.5	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		107.2	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.2	17.4	15.6	16.0	16.5
OKC	15.5	14.0	17.1	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	55	56	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.21	21	-7	28	16.5	16.5	0.00	15.6	14.3	1.34
Dirk Nowitzki	73	74	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.13	22	-8	30	15.8	19.6	-3.83	15.8	12.4	3.39
Jason Terry	64	67	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.06	14	0	14	15.6	18.8	-3.13	14.3	17.2	-2.86
Josh Howard	57	57	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	1	12	15.8	17.8	-2.01	14.1	16.8	-2.67
Jason Kidd	66	68	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.06	14	0	14	16.3	17.1	-0.79	15.5	14.0	1.57
Jose Juan Barea	50	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	14	-14	18.0	14.7	3.23	15.6	14.6	1.05
Shawn Marion	50	52	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.03	-7	21	-28	18.4	14.2	4.26	15.5	14.6	0.96
Drew Gooden	35	37	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.12	-7	21	-28	16.5	16.5	-0.00	14.0	15.9	-1.92

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaun Livingston	43	42	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-22	30	14.6	15.6	-0.97	16.2	16.8	-0.57
Thabo Sefolosha	33	32	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-15	16	16.6	14.3	2.32	18.5	15.5	2.99
Serge Ibaka	27	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-11	8	14.0	15.6	-1.53	16.9	16.4	0.51
Nenad Krstic	46	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-6	-2	15.0	15.2	-0.24	17.0	16.2	0.80
Nick Collison	45	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-8	2	15.3	15.0	0.33	16.1	17.0	-0.93
Jeff Green	71	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-3	-8	15.4	14.2	1.20	16.3	17.4	-1.14
James Harden	59	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.07	-15	1	-16	14.3	16.6	-2.32	15.5	18.5	-2.99
Russell Westbrook	61	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.02	-17	3	-20	15.1	15.2	-0.06	16.9	15.9	1.00
Kevin Durant	75	72	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.14	-19	5	-24	15.5	13.3	2.24	16.6	16.2	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.68,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 119, CLE 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.27,0.08,0.16,0,0.02,0	92.0%
SEA 117, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.05,0	91.6%
DET 80, WAS 69	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.06,0,0	91.5%