NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	5.0 [839]		MVP	Jeremy Lamb (OKC): +16.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Comeback	1.4 [1262]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): -13.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Harkless	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	9	65%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.09	20	56%	-0.00	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	11	54%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Tobias Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00
Glen Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	11	41%	-0.06	3	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.02	0.02	12	47%	-0.05	5	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.02	-0.01	10	80%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.02	-0.01	18	68%	0.22	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	3	75%	0.07	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	36%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.02	-0.06	22	40%	-0.01	5	-0.09	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	0.8	29.2	15.6	26.2	2.4	38.4	137.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +28.5%

OKC +10.2%

OKC +8.4%

ORL -0.9%

OKC +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	OKC	NBA	ORL	OKC	NBA
this game	15.6	13.3	15.1	98.0	102.0	105.2
season	15.3	14.4		100.4	107.8
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	16.7	17.6	13.8	15.6
OKC	13.5	13.3	11.9	14.4	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle O'Quinn	6	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-1	-1	20.7	15.3	5.35	14.8	13.2	1.59
E'Twaun Moore	13	13	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	0	-3	17.3	15.4	1.92	12.8	13.4	-0.51
Tobias Harris	48	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.41	10	-13	23	15.1	16.2	-1.07	13.7	12.9	0.86
Victor Oladipo	70	71	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-6	9	15.7	15.5	0.20	13.0	14.0	-0.99
Andrew Nicholson	30	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	7	-17	16.1	15.5	0.61	14.1	13.0	1.14
Maurice Harkless	46	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	6	-15	16.3	15.1	1.27	13.6	13.0	0.62
Glen Davis	60	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	3	-9	16.2	14.7	1.48	12.8	14.2	-1.39
Arron Afflalo	80	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-5	7	15.1	17.7	-2.57	13.4	12.7	0.75
Jameer Nelson	74	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-5	7	15.0	17.5	-2.46	13.2	13.6	-0.46
Nikola Vucevic	73	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	15.4	16.4	-1.05	13.1	13.7	-0.59

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lamb	45	46	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-9	21	13.5	13.1	0.40	16.7	14.7	2.04
Reggie Jackson	44	46	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.05	10	-7	17	14.2	12.6	1.60	16.2	15.2	0.99
Thabo Sefolosha	49	51	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.19	5	-2	7	11.8	14.8	-2.96	15.6	15.7	-0.03
Steven Adams	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	-1	5	14.3	12.6	1.73	15.8	15.5	0.35
Russell Westbrook	70	70	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.40	-4	7	-11	13.2	13.6	-0.46	14.8	17.5	-2.70
Kevin Durant	78	78	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.48	-7	10	-17	13.1	14.0	-0.84	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Nick Collison	37	37	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	-8	19	13.2	13.4	-0.21	15.5	15.7	-0.16
Kendrick Perkins	55	55	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	2	-1	12.6	14.2	-1.56	15.6	15.7	-0.05
Serge Ibaka	43	44	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.38	-7	10	-17	13.1	13.5	-0.39	15.4	15.8	-0.37
Derek Fisher	34	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.20	-10	13	-23	15.0	12.4	2.64	15.8	15.6	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.66,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, UTA 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.74,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
NYK 94, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
ATL 114, MIN 126	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	95.2%