NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	104		Excitement	7.1 [402]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +21.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	111		Comeback	1.6 [760]		LVP	Patrick Beverley (HOU): -10.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.05	22	64%	0.19	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
James Harden	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	18	56%	0.17	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Omri Casspi	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Terrence Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Chandler Parsons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	18	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	10	39%	-0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.08	-0.00	22	58%	0.26	1	-0.04	9	78%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	9	76%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.00	10	59%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	16	49%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.09	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	10	32%	-0.01	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	35.2	18.4	29.7	2.0	33.0	145.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +51.4%

POR +0.7%

POR +15.4%

HOU -20.3%

POR +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	14.2	15.2	15.1	106.1	113.3	105.2
season	14.3	15.1		109.5	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.2		106.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.6	13.6	14.7	16.3	14.2
POR	15.7	15.2	14.7	15.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	36	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.26	7	-14	21	12.3	15.4	-3.08	14.6	15.5	-0.83
Jeremy Lin	33	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.07	-1	-6	5	12.9	14.9	-1.98	14.5	15.5	-1.03
Francisco Garcia	40	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-6	5	13.6	14.6	-0.97	14.9	15.3	-0.44
Dwight Howard	84	85	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-11	15	14.2	14.1	0.10	15.5	12.9	2.58
James Harden	83	85	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-9	11	14.2	14.1	0.11	15.4	13.3	2.14
Chandler Parsons	75	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	14.8	12.5	2.28	15.3	14.6	0.72
Patrick Beverley	80	79	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.33	-15	8	-23	14.7	11.9	2.86	15.1	15.3	-0.12
Terrence Jones	59	59	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.08	-26	19	-45	15.1	12.9	2.20	14.9	15.5	-0.54

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	71	70	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.33	20	-13	33	14.9	15.9	-1.05	14.8	12.9	1.91
LaMarcus Aldridge	82	83	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-9	25	14.8	17.0	-2.20	14.7	11.5	3.26
Robin Lopez	72	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	2	3	15.5	14.2	1.27	15.3	11.6	3.61
Wesley Matthews	70	70	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	4	-1	15.5	14.4	1.13	14.9	12.6	2.21
Nicolas Batum	75	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	0	7	15.4	14.4	1.01	14.5	13.3	1.20
Dorell Wright	28	28	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	3	1	14.4	15.5	-1.13	12.6	14.9	-2.21
Joel Freeland	29	30	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	8	-9	14.7	15.4	-0.72	12.6	14.9	-2.29
Thomas Robinson	13	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	13	-19	16.7	14.9	1.76	9.8	14.8	-5.00
Mo Williams	50	52	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.17	-13	20	-33	15.2	15.1	0.12	12.8	15.8	-2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.73,0.73,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.69,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 70, PHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,1	93.1%
NYK 96, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.32,0.38,0.62,0.71,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.98,1,1	92.7%
NJN 80, ORL 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.92,1	92.5%