NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	105		Excitement	5.1 [813]		MVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): +23.7%
Sacramento Kings	100		Comeback	3.2 [275]		LVP	DeMarre Carroll (ATL): -10.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.24	0.12	0.11	-0.01	15	69%	0.26	2	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Al Horford	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	19	61%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Pero Antic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	56%	0.13	4	-0.12	8	50%	-0.05
Kyle Korver	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	4	90%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Cartier Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Elton Brand	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	11	27%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	12	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.11,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.04	17	60%	0.13	4	-0.12	9	100%	0.04
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	5	64%	0.08	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.09	0.04	10	68%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	0.04	12	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	26.0	14.8	26.2	2.3	39.4	135.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +38.7%

SAC -6.9%

ATL +6.6%

ATL +10.5%

ATL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAC	NBA	ATL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	13.9	15.1	107.1	101.0	105.2
season	14.8	15.4		103.8	104.5
opponent	14.7	15.3		107.1	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	13.9	16.1	16.4	15.3
SAC	13.8	14.4	15.2	12.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	70	72	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	0	5	15.2	15.7	-0.56	13.3	15.5	-2.19
Jeff Teague	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	-1	7	13.8	20.3	-6.46	13.5	15.4	-1.96
DeMarre Carroll	73	71	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	-1	7	15.6	14.6	0.96	14.0	13.8	0.15
Al Horford	72	76	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	4	-3	14.8	16.8	-2.08	13.6	14.9	-1.22
Kyle Korver	65	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	3	-1	14.9	16.1	-1.12	13.7	14.5	-0.76
Cartier Martin	50	51	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	5	-5	15.1	15.6	-0.52	13.4	14.5	-1.07
Dennis Schroder	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.13	1	4	-3	19.6	13.3	6.28	16.3	12.8	3.48
Elton Brand	23	20	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	1	3	16.8	14.9	1.97	15.4	13.5	1.91
Pero Antic	31	30	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	5	-5	15.8	15.1	0.76	15.1	13.4	1.63

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben McLemore	42	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-8	11	15.0	13.1	1.94	17.3	13.7	3.63
Charles Hayes	30	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-9	13	12.4	14.6	-2.24	13.5	16.1	-2.62
Travis Outlaw	26	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-5	5	15.1	13.5	1.56	15.9	15.1	0.86
Jason Thompson	43	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	1	-7	15.3	12.8	2.51	17.1	13.9	3.17
Isaiah Thomas	57	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.30	2	-7	9	14.0	13.9	0.13	15.7	14.8	0.84
Greivis Vasquez	42	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	2	-9	13.9	14.0	-0.13	14.8	15.7	-0.84
DeMarcus Cousins	59	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	0	-5	14.3	13.4	0.85	15.3	15.3	-0.03
Patrick Patterson	66	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-2	-1	13.4	15.0	-1.56	15.0	15.9	-0.96
John Salmons	73	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	0	-5	13.5	15.1	-1.56	15.1	15.9	-0.86
Marcus Thornton	57	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	3	-11	13.1	15.0	-1.94	13.7	17.3	-3.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.21,0.14,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 111, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
DEN 110, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
SAC 116, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%