NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	94		Excitement	4.0 [1018]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +17.1%
San Antonio Spurs	101		Comeback	1.8 [885]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -8.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	8	79%	0.13	3	-0.05	3	0%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	6	73%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	4	58%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Quincy Pondexter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.07	9	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	15	47%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	9	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	17	41%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.01	0.00	4	133%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.03	9	70%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	14	41%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	7	50%	0.07	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	9	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	70%	0.04	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	1.6	27.2	15.4	25.6	2.4	33.5	127.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.5%

SAS +0.7%

MEM -1.2%

SAS +1.9%

MEM -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	13.6	15.1	98.9	104.1	105.2
season	16.4	15.0		104.5	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.2		101.1	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.3	19.0	15.1	16.5	16.5
SAS	16.7	11.8	13.2	13.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Leuer	19	21	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.24	11	-18	29	15.4	16.7	-1.36	12.9	13.8	-0.86
Kosta Koufos	27	29	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.36	11	-18	29	15.8	16.7	-0.94	13.7	13.5	0.11
Jerryd Bayless	43	42	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-11	15	16.8	16.2	0.62	13.4	13.7	-0.39
Nick Calathes	9	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-11	15	17.2	16.4	0.85	9.4	14.1	-4.66
Ed Davis	15	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-5	3	14.7	16.8	-2.12	15.2	13.2	2.00
Quincy Pondexter	42	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.37	9	-16	25	16.2	16.6	-0.38	13.9	13.3	0.55
Tayshaun Prince	38	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	0	-7	17.0	16.1	0.91	14.8	12.7	2.12
Tony Allen	56	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	4	-15	16.9	15.9	0.99	14.0	12.9	1.05
Mike Miller	51	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-1	-5	16.2	16.7	-0.47	12.4	14.8	-2.39
Mike Conley	55	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	2	-11	15.9	17.1	-1.20	14.0	13.0	0.97
Marc Gasol	68	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.06	-18	11	-29	16.7	15.8	0.94	13.5	13.7	-0.11
Zach Randolph	52	51	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.13	-21	14	-35	17.0	15.7	1.29	13.3	13.9	-0.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	32	31	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	0	7	13.4	13.7	-0.26	18.1	15.6	2.49
Marco Belinelli	36	36	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	4	-1	13.4	13.7	-0.26	17.6	15.7	1.87
Matt Bonner	33	33	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-4	15	13.5	13.6	-0.19	16.4	16.5	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	49	49	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	-3	13	12.7	14.5	-1.83	15.9	17.0	-1.10
Boris Diaw	41	41	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.09	12	-5	17	12.8	14.2	-1.38	16.7	16.2	0.49
Jeff Ayres	22	20	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.29	-1	8	-9	11.7	14.1	-2.39	18.6	15.9	2.78
Danny Green	45	43	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.25	-1	8	-9	14.6	12.7	1.87	17.4	15.7	1.76
Kawhi Leonard	64	62	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	5	-3	13.7	13.4	0.23	15.5	18.2	-2.65
Tiago Splitter	59	58	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	6	-5	14.7	11.8	2.94	15.1	18.5	-3.38
Tony Parker	65	64	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	7	-7	13.7	13.4	0.26	15.6	18.1	-2.49
Tim Duncan	35	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	8	-9	14.1	13.3	0.84	16.7	16.3	0.46
Aron Baynes	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	15	-23	11.2	13.7	-2.43	20.3	16.3	4.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.79,0.91,0.88,0.9,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, CHH 115	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	95.3%
MIL 100, ATL 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	94.3%
DEN 101, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.96,1,1,1	94.1%