NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	97		Excitement	4.9 [851]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +24.7%
Indiana Pacers	75		Comeback	1.6 [484]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (OKC): -10.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.19	0.09	0.04	21	69%	0.29	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Orton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	24	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Kendrick Perkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	14	65%	0.13	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	5	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	12	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	11	30%	-0.05	1	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	34.3	16.2	26.6	2.4	31.3	135.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +20.6%

OKC +6.6%

OKC +21.9%

OKC +3.8%

IND -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	IND	NBA	OKC	IND	NBA
this game	16.7	17.0	15.4	112.8	88.2	104.1
season	14.8	16.1		109.3	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.0	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	17.9	15.2	15.0	19.2	16.7
IND	15.5	16.8	17.0	18.7	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	60	60	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.14	23	-1	24	16.5	17.1	-0.58	17.7	15.3	2.40
Russell Westbrook	62	62	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.15	16	6	10	16.1	18.4	-2.31	17.0	17.0	0.03
Hasheem Thabeet	31	30	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	13	-4	17.5	16.2	1.31	17.2	16.9	0.29
Reggie Jackson	31	30	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	12	-2	17.5	16.3	1.26	16.8	17.1	-0.32
Nick Collison	33	34	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	15	-8	16.5	16.9	-0.41	17.3	16.8	0.48
Kevin Martin	45	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	10	2	16.8	16.6	0.28	17.3	16.6	0.66
Kendrick Perkins	50	48	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.16	13	9	4	16.4	17.2	-0.83	16.9	17.1	-0.14
Serge Ibaka	52	51	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.15	12	10	2	16.4	17.2	-0.77	16.8	17.3	-0.53
Thabo Sefolosha	43	42	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.07	3	19	-16	15.9	17.5	-1.60	16.6	17.3	-0.75
DeAndre Liggins	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	25.3	16.4	8.94	14.7	17.1	-2.39
Daniel Orton	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	25.3	16.4	8.94	14.7	17.1	-2.39
Ronnie Brewer	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	25.3	16.4	8.94	14.7	17.1	-2.39
Derek Fisher	14	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	23	-24	16.1	16.8	-0.68	15.9	17.2	-1.27

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	21	21	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-21	20	16.0	17.3	-1.36	16.8	16.7	0.13
Gerald Green	17	17	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.15	-4	-18	14	15.2	17.4	-2.18	18.8	16.2	2.56
Ian Mahinmi	26	24	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.14	-5	-17	12	17.4	16.8	0.64	16.7	16.7	-0.06
Orlando Johnson	33	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	-10	-2	16.5	17.3	-0.85	17.0	16.5	0.51
Tyler Hansbrough	26	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	-11	0	17.4	16.8	0.59	17.2	16.5	0.70
Lance Stephenson	52	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-12	2	17.3	16.5	0.85	16.5	17.0	-0.51
Roy Hibbert	54	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.05	-14	-8	-6	16.9	17.0	-0.09	17.3	15.7	1.61
David West	63	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	-8	-6	16.9	17.1	-0.22	16.2	18.1	-1.92
Paul George	68	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	-4	-14	17.4	15.2	2.18	16.2	18.8	-2.56
George Hill	65	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.08	-21	-1	-20	17.0	16.7	0.30	16.5	17.4	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, LAL 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	95.4%
BOS 98, ORL 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
POR 99, GSW 83	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%