NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	8.1 [230]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +38.2%
Dallas Mavericks	101		Comeback	1.9 [778]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (DAL): -10.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.11,0.27,0.27	0.09	0.20	0.02	23	64%	0.41	5	-0.14	9	100%	0.06
Kevin Durant	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.02,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.14	0.03	19	66%	0.37	6	-0.19	9	100%	0.04
Serge Ibaka	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	11	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.10
Reggie Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	4	37%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	6	33%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.21	0.19	0.02	10	96%	0.41	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.09
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	12	67%	0.21	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.08	-0.01	9	55%	0.14	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	8	61%	0.10	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.08,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	11	58%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	12	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	10	43%	-0.02	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	28.3	16.6	30.2	1.7	33.8	137.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +45.3%

DAL -18.6%

OKC +11.8%

OKC +11.0%

OKC +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.5	15.4	110.3	105.2	104.1
season	14.8	14.5		109.3	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.0	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.6	14.6	13.8	17.3	15.3
DAL	15.0	14.2	16.2	12.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	50	48	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-9	24	15.0	15.6	-0.60	14.2	14.9	-0.69
Russell Westbrook	76	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	-2	10	15.4	15.0	0.39	14.9	13.4	1.51
Serge Ibaka	80	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	0	6	15.3	15.5	-0.27	14.5	14.5	0.04
Kevin Durant	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	2	2	15.6	14.2	1.40	14.7	14.0	0.65
Nick Collison	38	37	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	2	2	14.9	15.6	-0.64	14.4	14.6	-0.16
Thabo Sefolosha	55	56	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	6	-6	15.5	15.0	0.46	14.6	14.4	0.14
Kendrick Perkins	56	55	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.35	-6	12	-18	15.7	14.8	0.83	15.0	13.9	1.10
Derek Fisher	26	27	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	2	2	15.1	15.4	-0.32	14.2	14.7	-0.43
Reggie Jackson	25	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	11	-16	14.6	15.6	-1.01	13.1	15.0	-1.96

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	40	41	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-9	12	14.8	14.3	0.55	15.6	15.1	0.52
Chris Kaman	9	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-5	4	14.9	14.5	0.39	13.5	15.5	-2.02
Rodrigue Beaubois	14	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-4	2	14.0	14.6	-0.62	14.4	15.5	-1.11
Darren Collison	43	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-4	2	13.7	15.2	-1.55	14.7	15.8	-1.12
Dirk Nowitzki	68	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.40	8	-14	22	14.0	15.7	-1.67	15.9	14.0	1.82
O.J. Mayo	68	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-5	4	14.8	14.0	0.80	15.7	14.4	1.29
Jae Crowder	59	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	3	-12	15.0	13.8	1.26	14.7	16.3	-1.58
Mike James	67	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	2	-10	14.8	13.9	0.96	15.6	14.7	0.97
Vince Carter	52	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	-1	-4	14.4	14.7	-0.28	15.8	14.7	1.02
Brandan Wright	60	61	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	7	-20	14.6	14.4	0.18	14.9	16.0	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.6,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.26,0.43,0.43,0.28,0.21,0.4,0.34,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.16,0	92.2%
HOU 109, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.41,0.22,0.08,0.36,0.23,0.1,0	92.1%
GSW 107, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.02,0.01,0.08,0	92.1%