NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	91		Excitement	7.3 [355]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +24.6%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	1.1 [1039]		LVP	Vince Carter (DAL): -23.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.00	8	75%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	16	55%	0.16	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Jae Crowder	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	53%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	41%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	11	42%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-0.01	12	42%	-0.20	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.13	-0.01	20	62%	0.30	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.05	0.17	-0.00	13	57%	0.25	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	0.00	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	9	32%	-0.12	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	32.3	17.7	25.0	2.8	32.2	134.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.4%

SAS +3.4%

SAS +13.1%

DAL -10.0%

SAS +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.3	16.2	15.4	95.8	97.9	104.1
season	14.5	15.2		104.3	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.6		99.5	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	14.4	13.4	15.6	14.3
SAS	15.4	14.4	17.3	17.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	46	46	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.07	3	-4	7	13.2	15.3	-2.09	17.5	14.9	2.69
Dirk Nowitzki	68	67	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.31	8	-9	17	14.2	14.5	-0.28	16.8	14.6	2.27
Chris Kaman	28	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	5	-11	14.5	14.3	0.21	17.6	15.6	2.00
Brandan Wright	50	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.44	7	-8	15	13.8	14.9	-1.09	16.1	16.3	-0.22
Darren Collison	52	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	0	-1	14.0	14.7	-0.66	15.3	17.3	-1.99
Mike James	70	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.31	-1	0	-1	14.5	13.8	0.75	17.2	13.9	3.29
Vince Carter	54	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-1	1	14.6	14.0	0.60	14.6	18.3	-3.79
Elton Brand	43	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	9	-19	15.0	13.8	1.21	14.2	17.9	-3.70
O.J. Mayo	64	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.47	-5	4	-9	14.9	13.2	1.71	16.4	15.7	0.74

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	64	65	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.36	13	-12	25	16.8	14.9	1.87	14.8	13.3	1.44
Danny Green	64	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	0	1	16.8	14.7	2.11	14.5	14.0	0.52
Boris Diaw	46	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.56	-6	7	-13	15.3	17.0	-1.70	14.3	14.3	-0.05
Tim Duncan	68	69	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	-9	19	16.9	14.3	2.63	14.6	13.5	1.07
Manu Ginobili	57	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	5	-9	14.9	18.1	-3.15	14.3	14.3	0.03
Tiago Splitter	61	62	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	4	-7	16.8	15.0	1.76	14.0	14.9	-0.86
Gary Neal	47	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	3	-5	16.0	16.3	-0.30	14.7	13.9	0.85
DeJuan Blair	13	14	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	0	1	12.5	16.8	-4.21	14.3	14.3	-0.04
Cory Joseph	27	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	-1	3	17.4	15.7	1.79	13.3	14.7	-1.48
Stephen Jackson	23	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.11	-7	8	-15	14.5	16.7	-2.18	13.0	14.8	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 86, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.58,0.73,0.64,0.79,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.91,1	93.4%
HOU 98, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.65,0.65,0.57,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.3%
ATL 95, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.82,0.92,1	93.1%