NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	7.9 [256]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +24.3%
Philadelphia 76ers	94		Comeback	2.2 [690]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -23.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.09	0.15	0.00	5	86%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13	0.02	0.11	0.01	14	58%	0.24	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.04	0.12	-0.02	11	45%	0.13	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.24	0.01	-0.24	-0.00	19	54%	-0.13	4	-0.11	12	83%	0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.02	12	54%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	20	57%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.05,0.17,0	0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	18	55%	0.21	3	-0.21	2	0%	-0.03
Arnett Moultrie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jenkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	13	54%	0.14	2	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	27.8	15.8	25.1	2.5	32.5	128.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI -18.5%

MIA +27.7%

MIA +14.7%

MIA +20.9%

MIA +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	15.4	110.1	106.8	104.1
season	15.7	15.5		110.2	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.9		104.2	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	15.9	19.1	16.5	17.1
PHI	14.9	16.1	15.1	15.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	58	59	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.50	13	-9	22	17.1	17.2	-0.14	15.6	14.9	0.75
Chris Bosh	58	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-4	12	17.5	16.4	1.15	15.1	16.0	-0.96
LeBron James	67	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	-3	10	17.6	15.9	1.69	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Dwyane Wade	75	73	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	3	-2	17.1	17.4	-0.26	15.2	16.5	-1.29
Ray Allen	47	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.29	-1	5	-6	18.0	16.1	1.88	15.7	15.0	0.78
Shane Battier	48	47	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.12	7	-3	10	16.0	18.4	-2.42	16.0	14.7	1.29
Norris Cole	27	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	8	-12	15.5	17.8	-2.32	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Chris Andersen	31	30	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	8	-12	16.4	17.5	-1.15	16.0	15.1	0.96
Udonis Haslem	34	33	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	11	-18	18.1	16.5	1.59	14.7	15.8	-1.07

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Young	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-6	8	15.1	15.4	-0.35	17.0	17.2	-0.15
Royal Ivey	14	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-5	6	18.1	14.9	3.18	16.7	17.2	-0.48
Arnett Moultrie	11	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-1	-2	14.9	15.5	-0.56	14.8	17.4	-2.63
Charles Jenkins	25	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-3	2	15.0	15.5	-0.50	17.7	16.9	0.81
Lavoy Allen	26	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-3	2	15.8	15.2	0.58	19.5	16.1	3.40
Spencer Hawes	42	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-3	2	15.8	15.0	0.74	16.3	18.0	-1.76
Dorell Wright	41	42	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-8	12	14.6	16.1	-1.48	16.7	17.5	-0.80
Damien Wilkins	57	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	3	-10	15.3	15.6	-0.38	16.3	18.6	-2.28
Thaddeus Young	67	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	0	-4	15.5	15.2	0.27	17.6	15.8	1.81
Jrue Holiday	78	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	15.4	15.1	0.34	17.1	17.5	-0.41
Evan Turner	68	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	3	-10	15.2	16.1	-0.91	17.6	15.7	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.4,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.34,0.53,0.62,0.37,0.22,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 93, DAL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.22,0.15,0	91.1%
DEN 106, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.26,0.55,0.32,0.42,0	90.8%
MEM 91, OKC 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.25,0.31,0	89.9%