NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	9.9 [101]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +37.5%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	1.4 [335]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -25.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,-0.06,-0.16,0.37	0.12	0.25	-0.00	13	68%	0.51	2	-0.14	8	87%	0.11
Malik Beasley	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.15	0.16	0.00	8	94%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	12	54%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.06
Gary Harris	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Trey Lyles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Monte Morris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	10	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.06
Mason Plumlee	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	6	29%	-0.02	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Paul Millsap	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22	-0.11	-0.10	0.01	9	30%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	21	49%	-0.03	7	-0.23	1	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	9	75%	0.20	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.08,-0.16,-0.27,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	19	61%	0.39	3	-0.27	6	100%	0.05
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	70%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.14	-0.14	0.03	-0.16	0.01	9	50%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	31%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	24.6	15.4	26.2	2.0	38.5	134.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +6.6%

DEN +19.2%

DEN +25.9%

TOR -6.1%

DEN +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	14.2	13.6	14.3	102.9	99.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.3		112.0	111.5
opponent	14.5	14.6		105.9	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	11.6	16.0	16.4	14.2
TOR	13.7	14.1	12.8	13.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	75	77	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.50	15	-12	27	14.2	14.4	-0.20	14.1	12.3	1.73
Malik Beasley	57	58	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.44	11	-8	19	13.1	15.6	-2.56	13.9	13.2	0.75
Jamal Murray	87	88	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.51	1	2	-1	14.6	11.9	2.69	13.5	14.5	-1.05
Paul Millsap	62	64	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	0	3	15.0	13.0	2.02	13.2	14.3	-1.07
Juancho Hernangomez	60	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	14.9	13.2	1.68	13.5	13.8	-0.31
Torrey Craig	36	37	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	-1	5	14.4	14.1	0.23	13.2	13.9	-0.70
Gary Harris	20	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	4	-5	14.3	14.2	0.11	13.3	13.7	-0.43
Mason Plumlee	41	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.08	-2	5	-7	13.0	15.0	-2.02	14.3	13.2	1.07
Monte Morris	49	47	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	8	-13	13.8	14.6	-0.80	14.2	13.2	1.01
Trey Lyles	28	27	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.07	-10	13	-23	14.4	14.2	0.20	12.3	14.1	-1.73

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delon Wright	34	34	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.02	6	-9	15	13.7	13.6	0.13	13.9	14.4	-0.49
CJ Miles	35	35	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.12	9	-12	21	14.0	13.4	0.58	14.0	14.3	-0.28
Fred VanVleet	40	39	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.07	-1	-2	1	14.7	12.9	1.76	13.5	14.7	-1.21
OG Anunoby	24	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-2	1	15.2	13.1	2.07	14.2	14.2	0.05
Jonas Valanciunas	42	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-3	3	14.1	13.3	0.84	12.6	15.2	-2.60
Danny Green	70	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-8	13	12.7	15.5	-2.76	14.2	14.3	-0.07
Serge Ibaka	66	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	3	-9	13.3	14.2	-0.98	14.8	13.1	1.78
Pascal Siakam	63	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.50	-2	-1	-1	13.0	14.6	-1.56	15.1	12.8	2.27
Kyle Lowry	72	71	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.37	-12	9	-21	13.7	13.5	0.12	14.5	13.6	0.85
Kawhi Leonard	74	74	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.35	-13	10	-23	13.7	13.5	0.16	14.1	14.4	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.26,0.55,0.32,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 109, CHA 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.38,0.24,0.11,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.55,0.42,0	92.2%
NOH 88, NYK 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.33,0.28,0	91.5%
SAC 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.27,0	91.1%