NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	7.5 [324]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (DAL): +16.4%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	1.3 [808]		LVP	Will Bynum (DET): -11.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.02	-0.01	15	65%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Brandan Wright	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	10	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11	-0.02	0.10	-0.02	9	48%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.03,0.14,0.08	-0.05	0.12	-0.01	14	43%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	8	75%	0.22	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	83%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Kaman	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Jae Crowder	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.00	9	63%	0.16	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.01	17	60%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.27,0.16,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	12	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	11	36%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	9	28%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.11	0.01	10	46%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	28.5	14.8	23.6	3.8	37.2	131.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +75.7%

DET -3.1%

DET -24.5%

DET -1.6%

DAL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	15.0	16.2	15.4	109.7	107.6	104.1
season	14.5	15.7		104.3	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		106.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.2	14.9	13.9	15.0	15.0
DET	16.5	15.1	17.4	15.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darren Collison	56	57	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.30	21	-18	39	14.2	16.2	-2.06	15.7	17.0	-1.30
Vince Carter	50	51	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.18	19	-16	35	13.9	16.2	-2.25	16.2	16.1	0.07
Elton Brand	59	58	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-8	19	15.2	14.7	0.48	16.6	15.5	1.10
Dirk Nowitzki	61	64	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	1	1	15.1	14.7	0.35	15.6	17.5	-1.92
O.J. Mayo	67	65	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.40	-5	8	-13	15.1	14.7	0.34	16.8	14.6	2.22
Brandan Wright	36	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	2	-1	15.7	14.5	1.17	17.0	15.7	1.28
Mike James	59	56	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.18	-8	11	-19	15.1	14.8	0.29	15.4	17.3	-1.92
Chris Kaman	28	29	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.13	-8	11	-19	14.4	15.2	-0.84	16.2	16.2	0.01
Jae Crowder	49	48	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.25	-18	21	-39	16.2	13.7	2.50	16.4	15.9	0.57

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Singler	53	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	1	-5	16.8	15.3	1.48	14.5	15.6	-1.09
Will Bynum	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-2	1	14.8	16.9	-2.07	15.8	14.5	1.32
Charlie Villanueva	26	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.35	6	-9	15	15.8	16.3	-0.44	14.5	15.2	-0.68
Jose Calderon	65	66	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.34	5	-8	13	17.1	13.8	3.32	15.1	14.7	0.44
Rodney Stuckey	24	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	6	-15	16.9	15.9	0.96	15.8	14.7	1.15
Jason Maxiell	65	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-2	1	16.4	15.5	0.91	15.2	14.4	0.79
Greg Monroe	67	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-3	3	15.8	17.1	-1.26	14.1	17.2	-3.09
Jonas Jerebko	26	25	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	8	-19	16.7	16.0	0.74	17.2	14.2	2.98
Khris Middleton	39	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-4	5	15.3	16.8	-1.48	15.6	14.5	1.09
Brandon Knight	63	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	15.6	17.4	-1.88	14.1	16.9	-2.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.32,0.3,0.15,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.46,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 94, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.21,0.43,0.27,0	92.2%
MIL 85, WAS 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.05,0	92.0%
IND 82, CLE 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.15,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.19,0.36,0.23,0.16,0	92.0%