NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	114		Excitement	11.1 [34]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +39.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	122		Comeback	4.5 [391]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -46.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alan Anderson	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3	-0.01	0.28	-0.03	20	47%	0.44	2	-0.14	5	80%	0.03
John Lucas III	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.15	0.11	0.00	9	89%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.24	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.10	0.15	0.01	11	79%	0.34	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Landry Fields	0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	13	56%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	14	37%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.05	-0.16	0.03	7	71%	0.05	6	-0.30	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.46	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.42,-0.42,-0.49,-0.49,-0.48,-0.46	-0.11	-0.34	0.01	21	36%	-0.18	2	-0.28	8	75%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.13	0.26	0.01	21	62%	0.49	1	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.02	0.16	-0.02	12	62%	0.27	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	8	76%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.05
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	0.04	-0.23	0.01	18	55%	-0.16	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.05
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.25	-0.25	-0.08	-0.15	0.02	12	39%	-0.12	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.2	15.4	28.6	2.7	36.6	1.8	18.1	156.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -16.4%

MIL +0.0%

MIL +20.9%

MIL +45.9%

TOR -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.0	15.4	104.6	111.9	104.1
season	16.1	14.7		104.4	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.3		103.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	13.2	18.2	16.1	14.6	12.5	15.1
MIL	16.2	13.1	12.8	14.8	12.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	36	35	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.13	3	-11	14	15.7	14.9	0.78	13.1	14.5	-1.35
Jonas Valanciunas	21	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-4	0	16.8	14.7	2.06	14.0	14.0	0.03
Terrence Ross	10	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-2	-4	18.3	14.8	3.47	11.6	14.3	-2.67
Alan Anderson	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-5	2	14.8	15.6	-0.73	13.9	14.1	-0.17
Amir Johnson	82	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-2	-4	15.4	14.4	1.03	14.1	13.7	0.47
Andrea Bargnani	67	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-1	-6	14.9	15.5	-0.65	14.2	13.7	0.44
Landry Fields	99	98	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-8	8	14.8	18.3	-3.47	14.4	10.9	3.47
DeMar DeRozan	94	94	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-3	-2	15.2	15.0	0.17	14.3	12.5	1.81
Kyle Lowry	76	78	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.37	-12	4	-16	14.6	16.4	-1.75	13.8	14.6	-0.82

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	93	95	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.29	22	-14	36	13.5	17.0	-3.48	15.5	13.0	2.46
Larry Sanders	70	70	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.29	19	-11	30	13.7	14.5	-0.80	15.6	14.3	1.35
Monta Ellis	79	80	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	0	8	13.8	14.6	-0.74	14.6	16.6	-2.01
Ersan Ilyasova	89	89	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.30	3	5	-2	13.9	14.5	-0.58	14.8	16.6	-1.78
JJ Redick	72	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	8	-8	14.4	13.2	1.23	14.8	15.9	-1.11
Luc Mbah a Moute	51	46	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	-1	10	13.4	14.6	-1.19	16.5	14.2	2.27
John Henson	15	17	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	5	-2	14.9	13.9	0.97	17.1	14.8	2.27
Ekpe Udoh	20	20	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.13	-1	9	-10	12.6	14.3	-1.75	16.0	15.0	1.04
Samuel Dalembert	16	16	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	18	-28	18.1	13.3	4.80	12.2	15.7	-3.47
Mike Dunleavy	40	41	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.09	-13	21	-34	15.2	13.4	1.81	14.5	15.5	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.81,0.74,0.62,0.48,0.32,0.53,0.47,0.28,0.53,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.85,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 109, MIA 119	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.15,0.24,0.08,0.46,0.75,0.9,0.98,0.99,1	88.5%
DEN 96, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.15,0.1,0.42,0.54,0.69,0.86,0.95,1,1	88.5%
LAC 93, SAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.68,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.24,0.15,0.34,0.42,0.54,0.69,0.93,1,1,1	88.4%