NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	100		Excitement	4.2 [1003]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +23.9%
Dallas Mavericks	123		Comeback	1.4 [1198]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (SAC): -6.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.01	-0.02	12	74%	0.15	5	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
James Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	11	59%	0.07	4	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
John Salmons	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Honeycutt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.05	11	61%	0.01	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	12	44%	-0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	63%	0.07	5	-0.12	9	78%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.01	0.06	6	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	19%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.23	0.03	0.02	15	81%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	-0.00	12	67%	0.11	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	7	79%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.04	9	77%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	53%	0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bernard James	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	-0.07	11	38%	0.02	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	60%	-0.02	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.6	31.3	17.2	30.4	1.8	28.2	136.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.3%

SAC -4.3%

DAL +0.4%

DAL +10.7%

SAC -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.2	14.3	15.4	99.0	121.8	104.1
season	15.0	14.5		104.7	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.2		105.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.6	18.0	12.1	13.0	14.2
DAL	13.7	14.0	13.2	16.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-23	23	12.9	14.4	-1.50	14.5	14.2	0.26
Tyler Honeycutt	9	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-23	23	11.6	14.5	-2.96	16.2	14.1	2.15
Jimmer Fredette	38	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-21	19	13.3	14.8	-1.49	15.0	13.8	1.15
Travis Outlaw	11	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-18	13	16.4	14.0	2.37	15.0	14.2	0.83
John Salmons	59	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-20	17	14.1	14.5	-0.39	13.6	15.1	-1.50
Francisco Garcia	51	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.23	-16	-7	-9	13.6	14.9	-1.33	14.3	14.2	0.16
DeMarcus Cousins	61	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-18	13	14.5	13.9	0.53	13.6	15.3	-1.73
James Johnson	49	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.31	-23	0	-23	14.8	13.7	1.07	14.7	13.8	0.93
Jason Thompson	75	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.22	-21	-2	-19	14.3	14.2	0.02	14.9	12.5	2.33
Tyreke Evans	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.15	-19	-4	-15	14.5	13.5	1.01	14.0	15.2	-1.29
Isaiah Thomas	63	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.14	-21	-2	-19	14.8	13.3	1.49	13.8	15.0	-1.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	63	63	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	7	9	14.3	14.1	0.22	14.7	13.5	1.16
Darren Collison	62	63	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.08	15	8	7	13.8	15.0	-1.24	14.8	13.3	1.54
O.J. Mayo	61	61	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	9	5	14.3	14.1	0.19	14.6	13.6	0.99
Shawn Marion	60	61	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.06	12	11	1	13.7	15.0	-1.27	14.6	13.7	0.91
Vince Carter	47	48	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	11	1	14.0	14.5	-0.58	14.3	14.2	0.08
Brandan Wright	37	37	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.23	16	7	9	14.3	14.2	0.05	14.2	14.3	-0.05
Elton Brand	29	31	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	16	-9	13.6	14.5	-0.91	15.4	13.7	1.64
Dahntay Jones	27	26	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.00	6	17	-11	14.4	14.2	0.24	14.3	14.2	0.08
Rodrigue Beaubois	28	28	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	22	-21	14.1	14.3	-0.17	13.2	14.6	-1.43
Mike James	21	19	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.13	7	16	-9	16.8	13.6	3.15	12.6	14.6	-2.06
Jae Crowder	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.19	9	14	-5	14.6	14.1	0.51	12.7	15.0	-2.30
Bernard James	35	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	23	-23	14.8	14.0	0.77	13.2	14.7	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 76, SAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
OKC 120, MIN 131	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.9%
NJN 77, ATL 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%